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V · Forward model · Data processing revenue · Suh Low-Teens case

What has to happen in Data processing revenue

Model as of

This page changes Data processing revenue inside the complete V model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

V forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $358.69 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $11.66B 57% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $83.94B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Suh raised fiscal 2026 on 28 July 2026 to the low end of low-teens adjusted net revenue growth, with fiscal Q4 at the high end of low-double-digits. Translated through the roughly 2.5-point FX-and-acquisition wedge that printed in the June quarter, that is a nominal fiscal Q4 of about $12.07-12.23B and a fiscal 2026 of about $45.8-46.0B. This case pays for the TOP of that band and for nothing else: fiscal Q4 2026 prints $12,229M and fiscal 2026 $45,993M. The delta compounds, so it is not only a claim about one quarter - by the trailing twelve months to fiscal 2031 Q3 the revenue line stands 12.7% above base, which is what it costs to assume Visa keeps delivering at the top of its own guided pace for five years. It does not assume the FIFA marketing-services revenue repeats, and even at the top of the band the fair value of $358.69 is 6.6% below the price.

Data processing revenue

Basis quarter$6.04B
Final quarter$11.66B
Implied CAGR+14%
Final revenue mix57%

Authorisation, clearing, settlement, network access and the network products bundled with them, earned on transactions Visa actually switches. The unit is disclosed: 71.7 billion processed transactions in Q3 FY2026 at $0.08427 each.

Last four quarters
2025 Q4 $5.39B Estimated
2026 Q1 $5.54B Reported
2026 Q2 $5.54B Reported
2026 Q3 $6.04B Reported
Per-transaction switching feesNetwork access and value-added network products
Sequential growth +3.2%/qtr decaying toward +2.5% +3.2% deseasonalised, the fastest of the four gross lines: transactions +10% and yield per transaction +7%.
Data processing revenue

Latest: $11.66B (2031Q3E)

Period Value
2022Q1 $3.61B
2022Q2 $3.48B
2022Q3 $3.58B
2022Q4 $3.77B
2023Q1 $3.83B
2023Q2 $3.82B
2023Q3 $4.11B
2023Q4 $4.26B
2024Q1 $4.36B
2024Q2 $4.26B
2024Q3 $4.49B
2024Q4 $4.61B
2025Q1 $4.75B
2025Q2 $4.70B
2025Q3 $5.15B
2025Q4 $5.39B
2026Q1 $5.54B
2026Q2 $5.54B
2026Q3 $6.04B
2026Q4E $6.35B
2027Q1E $6.54B
2027Q2E $6.51B
2027Q3E $6.98B
2027Q4E $7.31B
2028Q1E $7.51B
2028Q2E $7.45B
2028Q3E $7.98B
2028Q4E $8.34B
2029Q1E $8.55B
2029Q2E $8.47B
2029Q3E $9.07B
2029Q4E $9.47B
2030Q1E $9.71B
2030Q2E $9.62B
2030Q3E $10.28B
2030Q4E $10.74B
2031Q1E $11.01B
2031Q2E $10.90B
2031Q3E $11.66B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The one line with a disclosed unit. Processed transactions by fiscal quarter, in billions: 2024 57.5, 55.5, 59.3, 61.5; 2025 63.8, 60.7, 65.4, 67.7; 2026 69.4, 66.1, 71.7. Yield per transaction reached $0.08427 in the June quarter, up 7.0% year over year, so revenue is outgrowing its own volume by seven points.
  • It is still a growth driver, deliberately. The engine's unit driver computes revenue as units times price and ignores the basis actual, so it would need the DESEASONALISED 71,386M transactions rather than the disclosed 71,700M, and a deseasonalised unit count displayed as if it were reported is worse than not showing one at all.
  • Seasonality [1.010, 0.969, 1.004, 1.017] is corroborated by an independent disclosed series: processed transactions themselves carry [1.023, 0.958, 1.003, 1.016] with a worst-quarter spread of 0.83% and a signal-to-noise ratio of 7.9. The revenue shape is the same shape, damped by a yield that moves the other way.
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