← V forward model

V · Forward model · Data processing revenue · Bear case

What has to happen in Data processing revenue

Model as of

This page changes Data processing revenue inside the complete V model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

V forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $206.10 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $9.45B 71% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $71.87B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Client incentives keep outgrowing gross revenue as the renewal cycle concentrates - +0.9 points a quarter on top of base - the currency-volatility spread keeps compressing international transaction revenue below its cross-border volume, and regulation or litigation bites the assessment base. The contra line reaches 42.8% of gross revenue by fiscal 2031 against 29.6% in the first projected quarter, net revenue growth stalls at 3-4% a year from fiscal 2027 to fiscal 2030, and the multiple derates to 9.0x on a 9.75% discount rate. What this case does NOT assume is loss of the dual-network position or a volume collapse: every gross line still grows, and fiscal Q4 2026 still prints $12,002M, +11.9% year over year. Fair value $206.10.

Data processing revenue

Basis quarter$6.04B
Final quarter$9.45B
Implied CAGR+9%
Final revenue mix71%

Authorisation, clearing, settlement, network access and the network products bundled with them, earned on transactions Visa actually switches. The unit is disclosed: 71.7 billion processed transactions in Q3 FY2026 at $0.08427 each.

Last four quarters
2025 Q4 $5.39B Estimated
2026 Q1 $5.54B Reported
2026 Q2 $5.54B Reported
2026 Q3 $6.04B Reported
Per-transaction switching feesNetwork access and value-added network products
Sequential growth +3.2%/qtr decaying toward +2.5% +3.2% deseasonalised, the fastest of the four gross lines: transactions +10% and yield per transaction +7%.
Data processing revenue

Latest: $9.45B (2031Q3E)

Period Value
2022Q1 $3.61B
2022Q2 $3.48B
2022Q3 $3.58B
2022Q4 $3.77B
2023Q1 $3.83B
2023Q2 $3.82B
2023Q3 $4.11B
2023Q4 $4.26B
2024Q1 $4.36B
2024Q2 $4.26B
2024Q3 $4.49B
2024Q4 $4.61B
2025Q1 $4.75B
2025Q2 $4.70B
2025Q3 $5.15B
2025Q4 $5.39B
2026Q1 $5.54B
2026Q2 $5.54B
2026Q3 $6.04B
2026Q4E $6.29B
2027Q1E $6.41B
2027Q2E $6.31B
2027Q3E $6.70B
2027Q4E $6.94B
2028Q1E $7.05B
2028Q2E $6.92B
2028Q3E $7.33B
2028Q4E $7.59B
2029Q1E $7.70B
2029Q2E $7.55B
2029Q3E $7.99B
2029Q4E $8.26B
2030Q1E $8.38B
2030Q2E $8.22B
2030Q3E $8.70B
2030Q4E $8.99B
2031Q1E $9.11B
2031Q2E $8.93B
2031Q3E $9.45B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The one line with a disclosed unit. Processed transactions by fiscal quarter, in billions: 2024 57.5, 55.5, 59.3, 61.5; 2025 63.8, 60.7, 65.4, 67.7; 2026 69.4, 66.1, 71.7. Yield per transaction reached $0.08427 in the June quarter, up 7.0% year over year, so revenue is outgrowing its own volume by seven points.
  • It is still a growth driver, deliberately. The engine's unit driver computes revenue as units times price and ignores the basis actual, so it would need the DESEASONALISED 71,386M transactions rather than the disclosed 71,700M, and a deseasonalised unit count displayed as if it were reported is worse than not showing one at all.
  • Seasonality [1.010, 0.969, 1.004, 1.017] is corroborated by an independent disclosed series: processed transactions themselves carry [1.023, 0.958, 1.003, 1.016] with a worst-quarter spread of 0.83% and a signal-to-noise ratio of 7.9. The revenue shape is the same shape, damped by a yield that moves the other way.
V model map

Explore another vertical