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V · Forward model · Data processing revenue · Bull case

What has to happen in Data processing revenue

Model as of

This page changes Data processing revenue inside the complete V model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

V forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $457.98 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $11.77B 51% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $86.46B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Value-added services keeps compounding at better than 20% across issuing, acceptance and risk, `other` keeps its advisory and marketing momentum without needing FIFA to repeat, the $563M severance action against about 2,600 roles converts into operating leverage, and the renewal wave passes without permanently resetting the incentive rate - the contra line falls to 24.5% of gross revenue by fiscal 2031 rather than rising to 31.8%. Net revenue reaches $79.0B in fiscal 2030 and the multiple holds at 13.0x. What this case does NOT assume is that the currency-volatility spread recovers to its fiscal 2025 peak; international transaction revenue still grows more slowly here than its cross-border volume. Fair value $457.98, the only case on this page above the current price.

Data processing revenue

Basis quarter$6.04B
Final quarter$11.77B
Implied CAGR+14%
Final revenue mix51%

Authorisation, clearing, settlement, network access and the network products bundled with them, earned on transactions Visa actually switches. The unit is disclosed: 71.7 billion processed transactions in Q3 FY2026 at $0.08427 each.

Last four quarters
2025 Q4 $5.39B Estimated
2026 Q1 $5.54B Reported
2026 Q2 $5.54B Reported
2026 Q3 $6.04B Reported
Per-transaction switching feesNetwork access and value-added network products
Sequential growth +3.2%/qtr decaying toward +2.5% +3.2% deseasonalised, the fastest of the four gross lines: transactions +10% and yield per transaction +7%.
Data processing revenue

Latest: $11.77B (2031Q3E)

Period Value
2022Q1 $3.61B
2022Q2 $3.48B
2022Q3 $3.58B
2022Q4 $3.77B
2023Q1 $3.83B
2023Q2 $3.82B
2023Q3 $4.11B
2023Q4 $4.26B
2024Q1 $4.36B
2024Q2 $4.26B
2024Q3 $4.49B
2024Q4 $4.61B
2025Q1 $4.75B
2025Q2 $4.70B
2025Q3 $5.15B
2025Q4 $5.39B
2026Q1 $5.54B
2026Q2 $5.54B
2026Q3 $6.04B
2026Q4E $6.36B
2027Q1E $6.55B
2027Q2E $6.52B
2027Q3E $7.00B
2027Q4E $7.33B
2028Q1E $7.53B
2028Q2E $7.48B
2028Q3E $8.01B
2028Q4E $8.38B
2029Q1E $8.60B
2029Q2E $8.52B
2029Q3E $9.12B
2029Q4E $9.53B
2030Q1E $9.78B
2030Q2E $9.69B
2030Q3E $10.37B
2030Q4E $10.83B
2031Q1E $11.11B
2031Q2E $11.00B
2031Q3E $11.77B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The one line with a disclosed unit. Processed transactions by fiscal quarter, in billions: 2024 57.5, 55.5, 59.3, 61.5; 2025 63.8, 60.7, 65.4, 67.7; 2026 69.4, 66.1, 71.7. Yield per transaction reached $0.08427 in the June quarter, up 7.0% year over year, so revenue is outgrowing its own volume by seven points.
  • It is still a growth driver, deliberately. The engine's unit driver computes revenue as units times price and ignores the basis actual, so it would need the DESEASONALISED 71,386M transactions rather than the disclosed 71,700M, and a deseasonalised unit count displayed as if it were reported is worse than not showing one at all.
  • Seasonality [1.010, 0.969, 1.004, 1.017] is corroborated by an independent disclosed series: processed transactions themselves carry [1.023, 0.958, 1.003, 1.016] with a worst-quarter spread of 0.83% and a signal-to-noise ratio of 7.9. The revenue shape is the same shape, damped by a yield that moves the other way.
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