V · Forward model · International transaction revenue
What has to happen in International transaction revenue
Model as of
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International transaction revenue
Basis quarter$3.85B
Final quarter$5.36B
Implied CAGR+7%
Final revenue mix30%
Cross-border processing and currency conversion. Two independent inputs: cross-border volume (+12% CN ex intra-Europe in Q3 FY2026) and currency volatility, which sets the conversion spread. Volatility is why revenue grew only 6% against 12% volume.
Last four quarters
2025 Q4
$3.80B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$3.65B
Reported
2026 Q2
$3.63B
Reported
2026 Q3
$3.85B
Reported
Cross-border transaction processingCurrency conversion spread
Sequential growth
0.0%/qtr
decaying toward +2.0%
0.0% deseasonalised. Suh: volatility at current levels persisting is `more of a drag than was incorporated previously`.
International transaction revenue
Latest: $5.36B (2031Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2022Q1 | $2.17B |
| 2022Q2 | $2.21B |
| 2022Q3 | $2.56B |
| 2022Q4 | $2.87B |
| 2023Q1 | $2.80B |
| 2023Q2 | $2.75B |
| 2023Q3 | $2.92B |
| 2023Q4 | $3.17B |
| 2024Q1 | $3.02B |
| 2024Q2 | $2.98B |
| 2024Q3 | $3.19B |
| 2024Q4 | $3.47B |
| 2025Q1 | $3.44B |
| 2025Q2 | $3.29B |
| 2025Q3 | $3.63B |
| 2025Q4 | $3.80B |
| 2026Q1 | $3.65B |
| 2026Q2 | $3.63B |
| 2026Q3 | $3.85B |
| 2026Q4E | $4.05B |
| 2027Q1E | $3.85B |
| 2027Q2E | $3.71B |
| 2027Q3E | $3.97B |
| 2027Q4E | $4.24B |
| 2028Q1E | $4.06B |
| 2028Q2E | $3.94B |
| 2028Q3E | $4.24B |
| 2028Q4E | $4.55B |
| 2029Q1E | $4.37B |
| 2029Q2E | $4.25B |
| 2029Q3E | $4.58B |
| 2029Q4E | $4.91B |
| 2030Q1E | $4.73B |
| 2030Q2E | $4.60B |
| 2030Q3E | $4.95B |
| 2030Q4E | $5.32B |
| 2031Q1E | $5.12B |
| 2031Q2E | $4.98B |
| 2031Q3E | $5.36B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The one unambiguous calendar in Visa's revenue. Seasonality [0.995, 0.949, 1.002, 1.054]: fiscal Q4 (July-September, northern-hemisphere travel) prints above trend in all four windows and fiscal Q2 (January-March) below trend in all three. Amplitude 10.6% against a worst spread of 2.8%, a ratio of 3.75.
- Two independent inputs sit inside one line: cross-border volume, which grew 12% in constant dollars ex intra-Europe in the June quarter, and the currency-conversion spread, which has no published metric at all. Revenue grew only 6% against that 12% because the volatility spread lapped last year's peak.
- That decoupling is the reason the first projected quarter is flat rather than at the +1.5% four-quarter deseasonalised trend. Suh, 28 July 2026: volatility at current levels persisting implies `more of a drag than was incorporated previously`. Raising the recent trend into the guided quarter would ignore the one thing management flagged.