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V · Forward model · International transaction revenue · Suh Low-Teens case

What has to happen in International transaction revenue

Model as of

This page changes International transaction revenue inside the complete V model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

V forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $358.69 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $6.10B 30% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $46.69B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Suh raised fiscal 2026 on 28 July 2026 to the low end of low-teens adjusted net revenue growth, with fiscal Q4 at the high end of low-double-digits. Translated through the roughly 2.5-point FX-and-acquisition wedge that printed in the June quarter, that is a nominal fiscal Q4 of about $12.07-12.23B and a fiscal 2026 of about $45.8-46.0B. This case pays for the TOP of that band and for nothing else: fiscal Q4 2026 prints $12,229M and fiscal 2026 $45,993M. The delta compounds, so it is not only a claim about one quarter - by the trailing twelve months to fiscal 2031 Q3 the revenue line stands 12.7% above base, which is what it costs to assume Visa keeps delivering at the top of its own guided pace for five years. It does not assume the FIFA marketing-services revenue repeats, and even at the top of the band the fair value of $358.69 is 6.6% below the price.

International transaction revenue

Basis quarter$3.85B
Final quarter$6.10B
Implied CAGR+10%
Final revenue mix30%

Cross-border processing and currency conversion. Two independent inputs: cross-border volume (+12% CN ex intra-Europe in Q3 FY2026) and currency volatility, which sets the conversion spread. Volatility is why revenue grew only 6% against 12% volume.

Last four quarters
2025 Q4 $3.80B Estimated
2026 Q1 $3.65B Reported
2026 Q2 $3.63B Reported
2026 Q3 $3.85B Reported
Cross-border transaction processingCurrency conversion spread
Sequential growth 0.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.0% 0.0% deseasonalised. Suh: volatility at current levels persisting is `more of a drag than was incorporated previously`.
International transaction revenue

Latest: $6.10B (2031Q3E)

Period Value
2022Q1 $2.17B
2022Q2 $2.21B
2022Q3 $2.56B
2022Q4 $2.87B
2023Q1 $2.80B
2023Q2 $2.75B
2023Q3 $2.92B
2023Q4 $3.17B
2024Q1 $3.02B
2024Q2 $2.98B
2024Q3 $3.19B
2024Q4 $3.47B
2025Q1 $3.44B
2025Q2 $3.29B
2025Q3 $3.63B
2025Q4 $3.80B
2026Q1 $3.65B
2026Q2 $3.63B
2026Q3 $3.85B
2026Q4E $4.08B
2027Q1E $3.90B
2027Q2E $3.78B
2027Q3E $4.07B
2027Q4E $4.38B
2028Q1E $4.23B
2028Q2E $4.13B
2028Q3E $4.47B
2028Q4E $4.82B
2029Q1E $4.67B
2029Q2E $4.57B
2029Q3E $4.95B
2029Q4E $5.35B
2030Q1E $5.18B
2030Q2E $5.07B
2030Q3E $5.49B
2030Q4E $5.93B
2031Q1E $5.75B
2031Q2E $5.63B
2031Q3E $6.10B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The one unambiguous calendar in Visa's revenue. Seasonality [0.995, 0.949, 1.002, 1.054]: fiscal Q4 (July-September, northern-hemisphere travel) prints above trend in all four windows and fiscal Q2 (January-March) below trend in all three. Amplitude 10.6% against a worst spread of 2.8%, a ratio of 3.75.
  • Two independent inputs sit inside one line: cross-border volume, which grew 12% in constant dollars ex intra-Europe in the June quarter, and the currency-conversion spread, which has no published metric at all. Revenue grew only 6% against that 12% because the volatility spread lapped last year's peak.
  • That decoupling is the reason the first projected quarter is flat rather than at the +1.5% four-quarter deseasonalised trend. Suh, 28 July 2026: volatility at current levels persisting implies `more of a drag than was incorporated previously`. Raising the recent trend into the guided quarter would ignore the one thing management flagged.
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