V · Forward model · Bull case

The Bull case, 20 quarters out

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

What is reported and what is not. Visa runs ONE reportable operating segment and disaggregates revenue into five categories in the Revenue note of every 10-Q and 10-K: service, data processing, international transaction and other, all gross, less client incentives, which are contra-revenue rather than an expense. All five verticals on this page are published lines. Across the nineteen quarters carried, 2022 Q1 to 2026 Q3, they sum to reported net revenue with a difference of exactly zero in every quarter, so nothing here is apportioned. The four fiscal-Q4 quarters are not separately disclosed and are derived per line as the full-year figure less the nine months ended 30 June; they are marked estimated, and the check that the derivation is right is that each one's five lines still sum to the independently reported quarterly net revenue. Three things are deliberately not built. Value-added services revenue - $3.8B growing 34% in constant dollars, `almost a third of our revenue` - is disclosed but spans service, data processing AND other, so making it a sixth vertical would double-count the switch. Client incentives are not split by revenue category because Visa publishes no such split, so no per-line net yield exists anywhere in this model. And payments volume is not turned into a unit driver because Visa discloses only its growth rate in filings; processed transactions ARE disclosed absolutely and are carried in the data-processing notes as corroborating evidence rather than as a driver. Every vertical carries the same 63.7% EBITDA margin, the trailing-twelve-month figure to 2026 Q3 of operating income plus D&A over net revenue. That is arithmetic, not a claim about the profitability of an incentive payment: Visa reports no segment operating income, and a different margin on the negative contra line would stop consolidated EBITDA reconciling to the sum of the verticals. Corporate overhead is therefore zero - all opex already sits inside that margin and a second take-out would double-count. Two basis warnings. Visa's guidance is `adjusted`: non-GAAP, constant dollars, EXCLUDING acquisition impacts. This model projects reported nominal GAAP net revenue, and the wedge between the two printed at about 2.5 points in the June quarter (nominal +14%, constant-dollar +13%, with Prisma and Newpay adding a little under 1.5 points), which is why a guide-consistent path here shows a NOMINAL growth rate two to three points above the guided one. And the repository's stored EPS series for V is GAAP ($2.97 for the June quarter) while Visa's own headline growth rates and the Street figure are non-GAAP ($3.32 against $3.23); the two are never paired. All quarter labels are FISCAL. Visa's year ends 30 September, so `2026 Q1` is the quarter ended 31 December 2025 and every seasonality array below is ordered [Oct-Dec, Jan-Mar, Apr-Jun, Jul-Sep]. This model runs on revenue, one common EBITDA margin, 3.5% capex intensity and Visa's guided 18.25% tax rate; share count is held flat because this is an enterprise free-cash-flow model, even though Visa bought back $16.4B of stock in the nine months to June.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.