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What has to happen in Other revenue

Model as of

This page changes Other revenue inside the complete V model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

V forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $457.98 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $4.49B 20% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $27.04B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Value-added services keeps compounding at better than 20% across issuing, acceptance and risk, `other` keeps its advisory and marketing momentum without needing FIFA to repeat, the $563M severance action against about 2,600 roles converts into operating leverage, and the renewal wave passes without permanently resetting the incentive rate - the contra line falls to 24.5% of gross revenue by fiscal 2031 rather than rising to 31.8%. Net revenue reaches $79.0B in fiscal 2030 and the multiple holds at 13.0x. What this case does NOT assume is that the currency-volatility spread recovers to its fiscal 2025 peak; international transaction revenue still grows more slowly here than its cross-border volume. Fair value $457.98, the only case on this page above the current price.

Other revenue

Basis quarter$1.50B
Final quarter$4.49B
Implied CAGR+25%
Final revenue mix20%

Advisory, marketing services, licensing, certification and the parts of value-added services that do not sit in the switching lines. The fastest-growing line, +45% year over year in Q3 FY2026, but the quarter contained one-off FIFA World Cup marketing-services engagements.

Last four quarters
2025 Q4 $1.18B Estimated
2026 Q1 $1.21B Reported
2026 Q2 $1.32B Reported
2026 Q3 $1.50B Reported
Advisory and consultingMarketing servicesLicensing, certification and other
Sequential growth 0.0%/qtr decaying toward +4.5% 0.0% deseasonalised, which is the FIFA bound: flat still prints +40% YoY because the base quarter was small.
Other revenue

Latest: $4.49B (2031Q3E)

Period Value
2022Q1 $449M
2022Q2 $474M
2022Q3 $517M
2022Q4 $551M
2023Q1 $587M
2023Q2 $551M
2023Q3 $597M
2023Q4 $744M
2024Q1 $692M
2024Q2 $756M
2024Q3 $780M
2024Q4 $969M
2025Q1 $912M
2025Q2 $937M
2025Q3 $1.03B
2025Q4 $1.18B
2026Q1 $1.21B
2026Q2 $1.32B
2026Q3 $1.50B
2026Q4E $1.67B
2027Q1E $1.62B
2027Q2E $1.63B
2027Q3E $1.75B
2027Q4E $2.05B
2028Q1E $2.02B
2028Q2E $2.05B
2028Q3E $2.21B
2028Q4E $2.59B
2029Q1E $2.55B
2029Q2E $2.60B
2029Q3E $2.80B
2029Q4E $3.28B
2030Q1E $3.23B
2030Q2E $3.29B
2030Q3E $3.55B
2030Q4E $4.15B
2031Q1E $4.09B
2031Q2E $4.16B
2031Q3E $4.49B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The fastest-growing line Visa reports, +45% year over year in the June quarter, and the one that should not be extrapolated. Suh named `strength in marketing services engagements related to FIFA` as one of three drivers of the value-added-services beat, and Visa does not disclose how much of the growth that was.
  • The flat first projected quarter IS the FIFA bound, and it is a bound rather than a measurement: flat sequentially on a deseasonalised basis still prints $1,649M, roughly +40% year over year, because the year-ago quarter was $1,176M. If none of the June quarter was one-off, this model is too slow here by about four points of consolidated fiscal Q4 growth.
  • Value-added services is NOT built as a sixth vertical. Visa discloses $3.8B of VAS revenue growing 34% in constant dollars, but that figure spans service revenue, data processing AND this line, so lifting it out would double-count the switch. The parts of VAS that are not switching sit here, and only here.
  • Standalone seasonality on this line is unreliable and the model says so: 11.5% amplitude against a 9.1% worst-quarter window spread, a ratio of 1.27, with the signs flipping between windows. The factors are carried because the five-line set reproduces independently measured consolidated seasonality to within 0.10 of a point, where dropping this line asymmetrically is out by 0.97.
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