UPST · Forward model · Small dollar and Cash Line
What has to happen in Small dollar and Cash Line
Model as of
This page changes Small dollar and Cash Line inside the complete UPST model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Small dollar and Cash Line
The funnel: small-dollar loans and Cash Line, Upstart's unsecured revolving product. $130M of originations, under 4% of unsecured volume, and the most erratic line on the page - it has gone 79, 111, 138, 111, 76, 130 across six quarters with no trend. Its job is acquisition rather than profit: a borrower who arrives for a few hundred dollars can be sold a personal loan later. Upstart excludes Cash Line from its automation and conversion metrics because repeat draws are not new decisions.
Latest: $17M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $7M |
| 2025Q2 | $10M |
| 2025Q3 | $13M |
| 2025Q4 | $10M |
| 2026Q1 | $7M |
| 2026Q2 | $12M |
| 2026Q3E | $12M |
| 2026Q4E | $12M |
| 2027Q1E | $12M |
| 2027Q2E | $13M |
| 2027Q3E | $13M |
| 2027Q4E | $13M |
| 2028Q1E | $13M |
| 2028Q2E | $14M |
| 2028Q3E | $14M |
| 2028Q4E | $14M |
| 2029Q1E | $14M |
| 2029Q2E | $15M |
| 2029Q3E | $15M |
| 2029Q4E | $15M |
| 2030Q1E | $16M |
| 2030Q2E | $16M |
| 2030Q3E | $16M |
| 2030Q4E | $17M |
| 2031Q1E | $17M |
| 2031Q2E | $17M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The smallest line in the model at under 4% of unsecured originations and about 3% of consolidated revenue, and the one whose projection matters least - a 50% error here moves fair value by less than a tenth of a dollar.
- Its contribution margin is not chosen, it is solved: given Core at 66% and super prime at 51%, this line takes whatever value makes the three weight-average back to the 61.53% Upstart discloses for Unsecured Lending as a whole.