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TSM · Forward model · Digital Consumer Electronics · Wei case

What has to happen in Digital Consumer Electronics

Model as of

This page changes Digital Consumer Electronics inside the complete TSM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

TSM forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $987.87 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $628M 0% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $3.73B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

C.C. Wei's version: AI demand is structural rather than cyclical, TSMC's leading-edge monopoly holds through 2nm and A13, and the company keeps both the volume and the price. Every platform is lifted, because the claim is about the foundry rather than one end market. Two things this case does NOT contain. TSMC has published no multi-year revenue target - the furthest forward number in the filings is a single full-year growth rate - so there is no stated claim to test this against, unlike the other founder cases on this site. And at 11x terminal revenue the exit multiple is doing most of the work here; the operating assumptions on their own do not get close. Read it as the price of believing the monopoly persists for five years, not as a model of it.

Digital Consumer Electronics

Basis quarter$402M
Final quarter$628M
Implied CAGR+9%
Final revenue mix0%

$0.4B and 1% of revenue - televisions, set-top boxes and consumer silicon. It is the smallest platform TSMC reports and the one most distorted by rounding: at a whole-percentage disclosure, 1% of a $40.2B quarter could be anything from $200M to $600M. It is carried because TSMC publishes it separately, and the honest thing to say is that its projection cannot be more precise than the disclosure it comes from.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $331M Estimated
2025 Q4 $337M Estimated
2026 Q1 $359M Estimated
2026 Q2 $402M Estimated
Televisions and set-top boxesConsumer silicon
Sequential growth +2.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% 2% a quarter. At 1% of revenue disclosed as a whole number, no growth rate here can be more precise than the source.
Digital Consumer Electronics

Latest: $628M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $235M
2024Q4 $269M
2025Q1 $255M
2025Q2 $301M
2025Q3 $331M
2025Q4 $337M
2026Q1 $359M
2026Q2 $402M
2026Q3E $414M
2026Q4E $426M
2027Q1E $437M
2027Q2E $448M
2027Q3E $459M
2027Q4E $470M
2028Q1E $480M
2028Q2E $491M
2028Q3E $502M
2028Q4E $513M
2029Q1E $523M
2029Q2E $534M
2029Q3E $546M
2029Q4E $557M
2030Q1E $568M
2030Q2E $580M
2030Q3E $592M
2030Q4E $604M
2031Q1E $616M
2031Q2E $628M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • One percent of revenue, disclosed as a whole number. The true figure could be anywhere between 0.5% and 1.5%, which is $200M to $600M on a $40.2B quarter - a range wider than the line itself. No projection here can be more precise than that.
  • It is carried separately because TSMC reports it separately. Folding it into Others would be tidier and would misstate what the company publishes.
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