← TSM forward model

TSM · Forward model · Smartphone · Wei case

What has to happen in Smartphone

Model as of

This page changes Smartphone inside the complete TSM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

TSM forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $987.87 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $11.92B 7% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $74.78B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

C.C. Wei's version: AI demand is structural rather than cyclical, TSMC's leading-edge monopoly holds through 2nm and A13, and the company keeps both the volume and the price. Every platform is lifted, because the claim is about the foundry rather than one end market. Two things this case does NOT contain. TSMC has published no multi-year revenue target - the furthest forward number in the filings is a single full-year growth rate - so there is no stated claim to test this against, unlike the other founder cases on this site. And at 11x terminal revenue the exit multiple is doing most of the work here; the operating assumptions on their own do not get close. Read it as the price of believing the monopoly persists for five years, not as a model of it.

Smartphone

Basis quarter$8.84B
Final quarter$11.92B
Implied CAGR+6%
Final revenue mix7%

The platform HPC is taking share from. $8.8B of revenue, 22% of the company, down 4% sequentially in a quarter when the company grew 12% - and down from 34% of revenue two years ago. It is not shrinking in dollars so much as being outgrown: smartphone revenue is roughly where it was a year ago while HPC has more than doubled. It remains the second-largest platform and the one with the most seasonal shape, since flagship silicon is built in the middle of the calendar year for autumn launches.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $9.93B Estimated
2025 Q4 $10.79B Estimated
2026 Q1 $9.33B Estimated
2026 Q2 $8.84B Estimated
Application processorsModem and RFFlagship smartphone silicon
Sequential growth +0.5%/qtr decaying toward +0.5% 0.5% a quarter. It fell 4% in the basis quarter and is flat year over year; this is being outgrown, not shrinking.
Smartphone

Latest: $11.92B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $7.99B
2024Q4 $9.41B
2025Q1 $7.15B
2025Q2 $8.12B
2025Q3 $9.93B
2025Q4 $10.79B
2026Q1 $9.33B
2026Q2 $8.84B
2026Q3E $8.98B
2026Q4E $9.11B
2027Q1E $9.25B
2027Q2E $9.39B
2027Q3E $9.53B
2027Q4E $9.67B
2028Q1E $9.82B
2028Q2E $9.97B
2028Q3E $10.12B
2028Q4E $10.27B
2029Q1E $10.42B
2029Q2E $10.58B
2029Q3E $10.74B
2029Q4E $10.90B
2030Q1E $11.07B
2030Q2E $11.23B
2030Q3E $11.40B
2030Q4E $11.57B
2031Q1E $11.75B
2031Q2E $11.92B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Down 4% sequentially in a quarter when the company grew 12%, and down from 34% of revenue to 22% in two years. The dollars are roughly flat year over year; the share loss is HPC growing, not smartphone shrinking.
  • This is the most seasonal platform TSMC has - flagship silicon is built mid-year for autumn launches - so a single sequential print is a poor guide. The eight quarters here run +16%, +17%, -22%, +7%, +19%, +11%, -11%, -4%.
  • Smartphone competes with HPC for the same leading-edge capacity. When TSMC says demand exceeds supply, this is the platform that gets rationed, which is a reason to model it flat rather than growing.
TSM model map

Explore another vertical