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TSM · Forward model · Digital Consumer Electronics · Bull case

What has to happen in Digital Consumer Electronics

Model as of

This page changes Digital Consumer Electronics inside the complete TSM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

TSM forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $763.71 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $515M 0% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $3.21B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Leading edge stays sold out and TSMC keeps the pricing. Two-nanometer contributed revenue for the first time this quarter and 7-nanometer and below is already 77% of wafer revenue; the company's own full-year guide is for revenue to grow slightly above 40% in dollars. This case lets HPC hold a faster pace for longer and assumes the node transition is margin-accretive once the ramp is behind it rather than dilutive - which is what every previous node transition has eventually been. What it does NOT assume is any recovery in smartphone, which follows base and stays flat.

Digital Consumer Electronics

Basis quarter$402M
Final quarter$515M
Implied CAGR+5%
Final revenue mix0%

$0.4B and 1% of revenue - televisions, set-top boxes and consumer silicon. It is the smallest platform TSMC reports and the one most distorted by rounding: at a whole-percentage disclosure, 1% of a $40.2B quarter could be anything from $200M to $600M. It is carried because TSMC publishes it separately, and the honest thing to say is that its projection cannot be more precise than the disclosure it comes from.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $331M Estimated
2025 Q4 $337M Estimated
2026 Q1 $359M Estimated
2026 Q2 $402M Estimated
Televisions and set-top boxesConsumer silicon
Sequential growth +2.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% 2% a quarter. At 1% of revenue disclosed as a whole number, no growth rate here can be more precise than the source.
Digital Consumer Electronics

Latest: $515M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $235M
2024Q4 $269M
2025Q1 $255M
2025Q2 $301M
2025Q3 $331M
2025Q4 $337M
2026Q1 $359M
2026Q2 $402M
2026Q3E $410M
2026Q4E $417M
2027Q1E $424M
2027Q2E $431M
2027Q3E $437M
2027Q4E $443M
2028Q1E $448M
2028Q2E $454M
2028Q3E $459M
2028Q4E $464M
2029Q1E $469M
2029Q2E $474M
2029Q3E $479M
2029Q4E $484M
2030Q1E $489M
2030Q2E $495M
2030Q3E $500M
2030Q4E $505M
2031Q1E $510M
2031Q2E $515M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • One percent of revenue, disclosed as a whole number. The true figure could be anywhere between 0.5% and 1.5%, which is $200M to $600M on a $40.2B quarter - a range wider than the line itself. No projection here can be more precise than that.
  • It is carried separately because TSMC reports it separately. Folding it into Others would be tidier and would misstate what the company publishes.
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