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TSM · Forward model · Automotive · Wei case

What has to happen in Automotive

Model as of

This page changes Automotive inside the complete TSM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

TSM forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $987.87 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $3.37B 2% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $17.97B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

C.C. Wei's version: AI demand is structural rather than cyclical, TSMC's leading-edge monopoly holds through 2nm and A13, and the company keeps both the volume and the price. Every platform is lifted, because the claim is about the foundry rather than one end market. Two things this case does NOT contain. TSMC has published no multi-year revenue target - the furthest forward number in the filings is a single full-year growth rate - so there is no stated claim to test this against, unlike the other founder cases on this site. And at 11x terminal revenue the exit multiple is doing most of the work here; the operating assumptions on their own do not get close. Read it as the price of believing the monopoly persists for five years, not as a model of it.

Automotive

Basis quarter$1.61B
Final quarter$3.37B
Implied CAGR+16%
Final revenue mix2%

$1.6B, 4% of revenue, up 15% sequentially - the second-fastest platform in the basis quarter. ADAS, EV powertrain and in-vehicle compute. Automotive silicon has been through a two-year inventory correction and the sequential prints here have swung from -7% to +18% without much trend. It is the platform with the longest design-in cycles and the least sensitivity to the AI question that decides the rest of this model.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.66B Estimated
2025 Q4 $1.69B Estimated
2026 Q1 $1.44B Estimated
2026 Q2 $1.61B Estimated
ADASEV powertrainIn-vehicle compute
Sequential growth +5.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.0% 5% a quarter against +15% delivered, which came off an inventory correction rather than a trend.
Automotive

Latest: $3.37B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $1.18B
2024Q4 $1.08B
2025Q1 $1.28B
2025Q2 $1.50B
2025Q3 $1.66B
2025Q4 $1.69B
2026Q1 $1.44B
2026Q2 $1.61B
2026Q3E $1.71B
2026Q4E $1.80B
2027Q1E $1.89B
2027Q2E $1.97B
2027Q3E $2.06B
2027Q4E $2.14B
2028Q1E $2.22B
2028Q2E $2.30B
2028Q3E $2.38B
2028Q4E $2.47B
2029Q1E $2.55B
2029Q2E $2.63B
2029Q3E $2.72B
2029Q4E $2.80B
2030Q1E $2.89B
2030Q2E $2.98B
2030Q3E $3.08B
2030Q4E $3.17B
2031Q1E $3.27B
2031Q2E $3.37B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Up 15% sequentially, the second-fastest platform in the basis quarter, but the eight-quarter path is +6%, +6%, +14%, +0%, +18%, -1%, -7%, +15% - a platform coming out of an inventory correction rather than one compounding.
  • Automotive design-in cycles run years rather than quarters, so this line is the least sensitive of the six to the AI capacity question that decides the rest of the model.
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