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TSM · Forward model · Digital Consumer Electronics · Bear case

What has to happen in Digital Consumer Electronics

Model as of

This page changes Digital Consumer Electronics inside the complete TSM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

TSM forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $201.80 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $280M 1% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $2.05B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The depreciation arrives. TSMC spent NT$496bn on capital expenditure in the basis quarter alone, and its depreciation was FLAT year over year in the first half - NT$359.5bn against NT$359.0bn - because the fabs are not in service yet. That is a timing gap, not a saving, and it closes. Management already guides gross margin down to 65-67% next quarter from 67.7%, citing the 2-nanometer ramp and overseas fabs. This case runs HPC decelerating from 20% sequential while the cost of the capacity built to serve it lands, and prices TSMC as what it is on the balance sheet: a business converting 39% of revenue into plant every quarter.

Digital Consumer Electronics

Basis quarter$402M
Final quarter$280M
Implied CAGR−7%
Final revenue mix1%

$0.4B and 1% of revenue - televisions, set-top boxes and consumer silicon. It is the smallest platform TSMC reports and the one most distorted by rounding: at a whole-percentage disclosure, 1% of a $40.2B quarter could be anything from $200M to $600M. It is carried because TSMC publishes it separately, and the honest thing to say is that its projection cannot be more precise than the disclosure it comes from.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $331M Estimated
2025 Q4 $337M Estimated
2026 Q1 $359M Estimated
2026 Q2 $402M Estimated
Televisions and set-top boxesConsumer silicon
Sequential growth +2.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% 2% a quarter. At 1% of revenue disclosed as a whole number, no growth rate here can be more precise than the source.
Digital Consumer Electronics

Latest: $280M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $235M
2024Q4 $269M
2025Q1 $255M
2025Q2 $301M
2025Q3 $331M
2025Q4 $337M
2026Q1 $359M
2026Q2 $402M
2026Q3E $398M
2026Q4E $393M
2027Q1E $387M
2027Q2E $381M
2027Q3E $375M
2027Q4E $369M
2028Q1E $362M
2028Q2E $355M
2028Q3E $349M
2028Q4E $342M
2029Q1E $336M
2029Q2E $329M
2029Q3E $323M
2029Q4E $316M
2030Q1E $310M
2030Q2E $304M
2030Q3E $298M
2030Q4E $292M
2031Q1E $286M
2031Q2E $280M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • One percent of revenue, disclosed as a whole number. The true figure could be anywhere between 0.5% and 1.5%, which is $200M to $600M on a $40.2B quarter - a range wider than the line itself. No projection here can be more precise than that.
  • It is carried separately because TSMC reports it separately. Folding it into Others would be tidier and would misstate what the company publishes.
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