TSM · Forward model · High Performance Computing · Bull case
What has to happen in High Performance Computing
Model as of
This page changes High Performance Computing inside the complete TSM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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High Performance Computing
Two thirds of TSMC and effectively all of its growth. AI accelerators, datacenter CPUs and GPUs, and high-end compute - the platform every AI chip designer in the world routes through. It was 51% of revenue eight quarters ago and 66% now, and it grew 20% sequentially in the basis quarter while the company grew 12%. TSMC does not break out an AI line; AI sits inside this one, and the company will not size it. What makes this platform different from the other five is that it is the one bidding for leading-edge capacity: 2-nanometer began contributing revenue this quarter and 7-nanometer and below is 77% of wafer revenue.
Latest: $126.65B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $11.98B |
| 2024Q4 | $14.25B |
| 2025Q1 | $15.06B |
| 2025Q2 | $18.04B |
| 2025Q3 | $18.87B |
| 2025Q4 | $18.55B |
| 2026Q1 | $21.90B |
| 2026Q2 | $26.53B |
| 2026Q3E | $31.66B |
| 2026Q4E | $36.85B |
| 2027Q1E | $42.02B |
| 2027Q2E | $47.11B |
| 2027Q3E | $52.11B |
| 2027Q4E | $57.00B |
| 2028Q1E | $61.81B |
| 2028Q2E | $66.53B |
| 2028Q3E | $71.21B |
| 2028Q4E | $75.87B |
| 2029Q1E | $80.52B |
| 2029Q2E | $85.21B |
| 2029Q3E | $89.95B |
| 2029Q4E | $94.78B |
| 2030Q1E | $99.71B |
| 2030Q2E | $104.76B |
| 2030Q3E | $109.96B |
| 2030Q4E | $115.33B |
| 2031Q1E | $120.89B |
| 2031Q2E | $126.65B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Revenue here is total company revenue multiplied by the platform percentage TSMC publishes on one slide of its quarterly deck. The percentages are whole numbers and sum to exactly 100 in all eight quarters, so the six lines reconcile to reported revenue exactly - but each line carries up to half a percentage point of rounding, which on this platform is about $200M.
- TSMC publishes no revenue, no margin and no capacity for HPC. It publishes a percentage of revenue and a sequential growth rate, and nothing else - which is why this vertical has a growth driver and the same margin as the other five.
- The one volume metric TSMC does publish is company-wide: 4,336 thousand 12-inch equivalent wafers in the basis quarter, up 3.9% sequentially against revenue up 12.0%. The gap is price and mix - blended revenue per wafer rose to about $9,300 - and almost all of it is this platform moving to leading-edge nodes.
- Two-nanometer contributed 3% of wafer revenue for the first time this quarter and 7-nanometer and below reached 77%. That node ramp is the physical event behind this platform's growth, and TSMC guides gross margin DOWN to 65-67% next quarter partly because of it.