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TSM · Forward model · Others · Bull case

What has to happen in Others

Model as of

This page changes Others inside the complete TSM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

TSM forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $763.71 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.16B 1% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $6.90B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Leading edge stays sold out and TSMC keeps the pricing. Two-nanometer contributed revenue for the first time this quarter and 7-nanometer and below is already 77% of wafer revenue; the company's own full-year guide is for revenue to grow slightly above 40% in dollars. This case lets HPC hold a faster pace for longer and assumes the node transition is margin-accretive once the ramp is behind it rather than dilutive - which is what every previous node transition has eventually been. What it does NOT assume is any recovery in smartphone, which follows base and stays flat.

Others

Basis quarter$804M
Final quarter$1.16B
Implied CAGR+8%
Final revenue mix1%

$0.8B and 2% of revenue - the residual TSMC does not assign to the five named platforms. Like DCE it is a whole-percentage line and carries the same rounding imprecision. It exists here so the six verticals sum to reported revenue rather than to 98% of it.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $662M Estimated
2025 Q4 $675M Estimated
2026 Q1 $718M Estimated
2026 Q2 $804M Estimated
Unassigned platforms
Sequential growth +3.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% 3% a quarter. A residual line at 2% of revenue; the rate is a placeholder, not a forecast.
Others

Latest: $1.16B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $470M
2024Q4 $538M
2025Q1 $511M
2025Q2 $601M
2025Q3 $662M
2025Q4 $675M
2026Q1 $718M
2026Q2 $804M
2026Q3E $828M
2026Q4E $850M
2027Q1E $871M
2027Q2E $891M
2027Q3E $910M
2027Q4E $928M
2028Q1E $946M
2028Q2E $963M
2028Q3E $980M
2028Q4E $996M
2029Q1E $1.01B
2029Q2E $1.03B
2029Q3E $1.05B
2029Q4E $1.06B
2030Q1E $1.08B
2030Q2E $1.10B
2030Q3E $1.11B
2030Q4E $1.13B
2031Q1E $1.15B
2031Q2E $1.16B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The residual TSMC does not assign to a named platform, at 2% of revenue. It exists in this model so the six verticals sum to reported revenue rather than to 98% of it.
  • Like DCE this is a whole-percentage disclosure on a $40B base, so its dollar value carries roughly $200M of rounding either way and its growth rate should not be read closely.
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