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TSM · Forward model · Automotive · Bull case

What has to happen in Automotive

Model as of

This page changes Automotive inside the complete TSM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

TSM forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $763.71 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $2.76B 2% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $15.42B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Leading edge stays sold out and TSMC keeps the pricing. Two-nanometer contributed revenue for the first time this quarter and 7-nanometer and below is already 77% of wafer revenue; the company's own full-year guide is for revenue to grow slightly above 40% in dollars. This case lets HPC hold a faster pace for longer and assumes the node transition is margin-accretive once the ramp is behind it rather than dilutive - which is what every previous node transition has eventually been. What it does NOT assume is any recovery in smartphone, which follows base and stays flat.

Automotive

Basis quarter$1.61B
Final quarter$2.76B
Implied CAGR+11%
Final revenue mix2%

$1.6B, 4% of revenue, up 15% sequentially - the second-fastest platform in the basis quarter. ADAS, EV powertrain and in-vehicle compute. Automotive silicon has been through a two-year inventory correction and the sequential prints here have swung from -7% to +18% without much trend. It is the platform with the longest design-in cycles and the least sensitivity to the AI question that decides the rest of this model.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.66B Estimated
2025 Q4 $1.69B Estimated
2026 Q1 $1.44B Estimated
2026 Q2 $1.61B Estimated
ADASEV powertrainIn-vehicle compute
Sequential growth +5.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.0% 5% a quarter against +15% delivered, which came off an inventory correction rather than a trend.
Automotive

Latest: $2.76B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $1.18B
2024Q4 $1.08B
2025Q1 $1.28B
2025Q2 $1.50B
2025Q3 $1.66B
2025Q4 $1.69B
2026Q1 $1.44B
2026Q2 $1.61B
2026Q3E $1.69B
2026Q4E $1.76B
2027Q1E $1.83B
2027Q2E $1.90B
2027Q3E $1.96B
2027Q4E $2.02B
2028Q1E $2.07B
2028Q2E $2.13B
2028Q3E $2.18B
2028Q4E $2.23B
2029Q1E $2.28B
2029Q2E $2.34B
2029Q3E $2.39B
2029Q4E $2.44B
2030Q1E $2.49B
2030Q2E $2.54B
2030Q3E $2.60B
2030Q4E $2.65B
2031Q1E $2.70B
2031Q2E $2.76B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Up 15% sequentially, the second-fastest platform in the basis quarter, but the eight-quarter path is +6%, +6%, +14%, +0%, +18%, -1%, -7%, +15% - a platform coming out of an inventory correction rather than one compounding.
  • Automotive design-in cycles run years rather than quarters, so this line is the least sensitive of the six to the AI capacity question that decides the rest of the model.
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