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TSM · Forward model · High Performance Computing

What has to happen in High Performance Computing

Model as of

This page changes High Performance Computing inside the complete TSM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

TSM forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $473.80 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $85.23B 83% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $399.30B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

High Performance Computing

Basis quarter$26.53B
Final quarter$85.23B
Implied CAGR+26%
Final revenue mix83%

Two thirds of TSMC and effectively all of its growth. AI accelerators, datacenter CPUs and GPUs, and high-end compute - the platform every AI chip designer in the world routes through. It was 51% of revenue eight quarters ago and 66% now, and it grew 20% sequentially in the basis quarter while the company grew 12%. TSMC does not break out an AI line; AI sits inside this one, and the company will not size it. What makes this platform different from the other five is that it is the one bidding for leading-edge capacity: 2-nanometer began contributing revenue this quarter and 7-nanometer and below is 77% of wafer revenue.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $18.87B Estimated
2025 Q4 $18.55B Estimated
2026 Q1 $21.90B Estimated
2026 Q2 $26.53B Estimated
AI acceleratorsDatacenter CPUs and GPUsHigh-end compute
Sequential growth +17.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.5% 17% a quarter against the 20% just delivered. Still four times the company's terminal rate, and decaying from the start.
High Performance Computing

Latest: $85.23B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $11.98B
2024Q4 $14.25B
2025Q1 $15.06B
2025Q2 $18.04B
2025Q3 $18.87B
2025Q4 $18.55B
2026Q1 $21.90B
2026Q2 $26.53B
2026Q3E $31.04B
2026Q4E $35.42B
2027Q1E $39.59B
2027Q2E $43.52B
2027Q3E $47.19B
2027Q4E $50.62B
2028Q1E $53.81B
2028Q2E $56.79B
2028Q3E $59.59B
2028Q4E $62.24B
2029Q1E $64.76B
2029Q2E $67.19B
2029Q3E $69.54B
2029Q4E $71.83B
2030Q1E $74.08B
2030Q2E $76.31B
2030Q3E $78.53B
2030Q4E $80.75B
2031Q1E $82.98B
2031Q2E $85.23B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Revenue here is total company revenue multiplied by the platform percentage TSMC publishes on one slide of its quarterly deck. The percentages are whole numbers and sum to exactly 100 in all eight quarters, so the six lines reconcile to reported revenue exactly - but each line carries up to half a percentage point of rounding, which on this platform is about $200M.
  • TSMC publishes no revenue, no margin and no capacity for HPC. It publishes a percentage of revenue and a sequential growth rate, and nothing else - which is why this vertical has a growth driver and the same margin as the other five.
  • The one volume metric TSMC does publish is company-wide: 4,336 thousand 12-inch equivalent wafers in the basis quarter, up 3.9% sequentially against revenue up 12.0%. The gap is price and mix - blended revenue per wafer rose to about $9,300 - and almost all of it is this platform moving to leading-edge nodes.
  • Two-nanometer contributed 3% of wafer revenue for the first time this quarter and 7-nanometer and below reached 77%. That node ramp is the physical event behind this platform's growth, and TSMC guides gross margin DOWN to 65-67% next quarter partly because of it.
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