TSM · Forward model · Smartphone · Bear case
What has to happen in Smartphone
Model as of
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Smartphone
The platform HPC is taking share from. $8.8B of revenue, 22% of the company, down 4% sequentially in a quarter when the company grew 12% - and down from 34% of revenue two years ago. It is not shrinking in dollars so much as being outgrown: smartphone revenue is roughly where it was a year ago while HPC has more than doubled. It remains the second-largest platform and the one with the most seasonal shape, since flagship silicon is built in the middle of the calendar year for autumn launches.
Latest: $5.31B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $7.99B |
| 2024Q4 | $9.41B |
| 2025Q1 | $7.15B |
| 2025Q2 | $8.12B |
| 2025Q3 | $9.93B |
| 2025Q4 | $10.79B |
| 2026Q1 | $9.33B |
| 2026Q2 | $8.84B |
| 2026Q3E | $8.62B |
| 2026Q4E | $8.40B |
| 2027Q1E | $8.19B |
| 2027Q2E | $7.99B |
| 2027Q3E | $7.79B |
| 2027Q4E | $7.59B |
| 2028Q1E | $7.40B |
| 2028Q2E | $7.21B |
| 2028Q3E | $7.03B |
| 2028Q4E | $6.86B |
| 2029Q1E | $6.68B |
| 2029Q2E | $6.51B |
| 2029Q3E | $6.35B |
| 2029Q4E | $6.19B |
| 2030Q1E | $6.04B |
| 2030Q2E | $5.88B |
| 2030Q3E | $5.74B |
| 2030Q4E | $5.59B |
| 2031Q1E | $5.45B |
| 2031Q2E | $5.31B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Down 4% sequentially in a quarter when the company grew 12%, and down from 34% of revenue to 22% in two years. The dollars are roughly flat year over year; the share loss is HPC growing, not smartphone shrinking.
- This is the most seasonal platform TSMC has - flagship silicon is built mid-year for autumn launches - so a single sequential print is a poor guide. The eight quarters here run +16%, +17%, -22%, +7%, +19%, +11%, -11%, -4%.
- Smartphone competes with HPC for the same leading-edge capacity. When TSMC says demand exceeds supply, this is the platform that gets rationed, which is a reason to model it flat rather than growing.