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TSM · Forward model · Others · Bear case

What has to happen in Others

Model as of

This page changes Others inside the complete TSM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

TSM forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $201.80 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $633M 1% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $4.38B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The depreciation arrives. TSMC spent NT$496bn on capital expenditure in the basis quarter alone, and its depreciation was FLAT year over year in the first half - NT$359.5bn against NT$359.0bn - because the fabs are not in service yet. That is a timing gap, not a saving, and it closes. Management already guides gross margin down to 65-67% next quarter from 67.7%, citing the 2-nanometer ramp and overseas fabs. This case runs HPC decelerating from 20% sequential while the cost of the capacity built to serve it lands, and prices TSMC as what it is on the balance sheet: a business converting 39% of revenue into plant every quarter.

Others

Basis quarter$804M
Final quarter$633M
Implied CAGR−5%
Final revenue mix1%

$0.8B and 2% of revenue - the residual TSMC does not assign to the five named platforms. Like DCE it is a whole-percentage line and carries the same rounding imprecision. It exists here so the six verticals sum to reported revenue rather than to 98% of it.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $662M Estimated
2025 Q4 $675M Estimated
2026 Q1 $718M Estimated
2026 Q2 $804M Estimated
Unassigned platforms
Sequential growth +3.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% 3% a quarter. A residual line at 2% of revenue; the rate is a placeholder, not a forecast.
Others

Latest: $633M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $470M
2024Q4 $538M
2025Q1 $511M
2025Q2 $601M
2025Q3 $662M
2025Q4 $675M
2026Q1 $718M
2026Q2 $804M
2026Q3E $803M
2026Q4E $800M
2027Q1E $795M
2027Q2E $789M
2027Q3E $781M
2027Q4E $773M
2028Q1E $764M
2028Q2E $755M
2028Q3E $745M
2028Q4E $735M
2029Q1E $725M
2029Q2E $714M
2029Q3E $704M
2029Q4E $694M
2030Q1E $683M
2030Q2E $673M
2030Q3E $663M
2030Q4E $653M
2031Q1E $643M
2031Q2E $633M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The residual TSMC does not assign to a named platform, at 2% of revenue. It exists in this model so the six verticals sum to reported revenue rather than to 98% of it.
  • Like DCE this is a whole-percentage disclosure on a $40B base, so its dollar value carries roughly $200M of rounding either way and its growth rate should not be read closely.
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