TSLA · Forward model · Optimus · Bull case
What has to happen in Optimus
Model as of
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Optimus
Basis quarter$0
Final quarter$5.75B
Final revenue mix7%
Humanoid robots, initially for internal use and training, later sold externally. The largest optionality in the model and the least evidenced — Fremont's first line is installing now.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$0
Estimated
2025 Q4
$0
Estimated
2026 Q1
$0
Estimated
2026 Q2
$0
Estimated
Internal deployment in Tesla factoriesExternal unit salesLong-term Giga Texas volume line
Units
500/qtr
growing +35.0% per quarter
500 units in the opening quarter. Musk's own framing is that this will be extremely slow at first.
Price per unit
$28000
drifting −2.0% per quarter
$28k a unit, inside the $20-30k range Tesla has talked about at scale, held near the top early.
Optimus
Latest: $5.75B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q3E | $0.00 |
| 2026Q4E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q1E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q2E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q3E | $27M |
| 2027Q4E | $39M |
| 2028Q1E | $56M |
| 2028Q2E | $79M |
| 2028Q3E | $113M |
| 2028Q4E | $162M |
| 2029Q1E | $232M |
| 2029Q2E | $331M |
| 2029Q3E | $473M |
| 2029Q4E | $676M |
| 2030Q1E | $965M |
| 2030Q2E | $1.38B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.97B |
| 2030Q4E | $2.82B |
| 2031Q1E | $4.02B |
| 2031Q2E | $5.75B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Zero revenue for five quarters is a modelled fact, not a placeholder. The Fremont line is still being installed, and its first output goes to Tesla's own factories for training rather than to customers — so the first external dollar lands in 2027 Q3, not at first production.
- Musk has called this the biggest product ever, possibly ten times the next biggest. This model does not encode that: at 35% a quarter from 500 units it stays a small share of revenue across the whole horizon. If you believe the claim, the growth rate here is where it goes, and it is the single largest lever on the page.
- Margin starts at -40%. Everything about this line is new — no shared platform, no existing supply chain — which is exactly why Musk warned it scales unlike a car.
- Treat the present value of this line as option value, not forecast. It is the assumption most likely to be wrong in either direction by an order of magnitude.