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What has to happen in Automotive

Model as of

This page changes Automotive inside the complete TSLA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

TSLA forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $826.91 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $34.45B 40% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $27.80B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Unsupervised FSD is broadly approved, Robotaxi utilisation reaches mature-network levels, the next-gen platform lands on time in Mexico, and Optimus finds external demand faster than the base case assumes.

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Automotive

Basis quarter$19.81B
Final quarter$34.45B
Implied CAGR+12%
Final revenue mix40%

Model 3/Y, Cybertruck and the next-gen platform, excluding FSD, which is carried separately. The cash engine that funds AI, robotics and energy — volume gated by pack capacity rather than demand, at mid-teens margins.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $20.75B Estimated
2025 Q4 $17.18B Estimated
2026 Q1 $15.65B Estimated
2026 Q2 $19.81B Estimated
Model 3 / Model YCybertruckNext-gen low-cost platformRegulatory credits
Units 480126/qtr growing +1.5% per quarter 480,126 vehicles delivered in 2026 Q2 — a record second quarter, as reported.
Price per unit $41264 drifting −0.7% per quarter $41.3k average, backed out of automotive revenue less FSD, Semi and Robotaxi over deliveries.
Automotive

Latest: $34.45B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q2 $16.27B
2025Q3 $20.75B
2025Q4 $17.18B
2026Q1 $15.65B
2026Q2 $19.81B
2026Q3E $20.37B
2026Q4E $20.94B
2027Q1E $21.53B
2027Q2E $22.13B
2027Q3E $22.75B
2027Q4E $23.39B
2028Q1E $24.05B
2028Q2E $24.72B
2028Q3E $25.41B
2028Q4E $26.13B
2029Q1E $26.86B
2029Q2E $27.61B
2029Q3E $28.39B
2029Q4E $29.18B
2030Q1E $30.00B
2030Q2E $30.84B
2030Q3E $31.71B
2030Q4E $32.60B
2031Q1E $33.51B
2031Q2E $34.45B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Modelled on units x price because Tesla's own constraint is physical: pack capacity caps units, and the next-gen platform lowers price deliberately. A single revenue growth rate would hide the fact that these two move in opposite directions.
  • FSD revenue is NOT in this line. It is carved out into its own vertical, so this is vehicles at hardware margin only. Leaving it in would flatter automotive margin and hide the software story the whole thesis rests on.
  • Margin glides 16% to 20% on scale and mix, which is deliberately unheroic. This line is modelled as a mature manufacturer that funds the rest of the company, not as a growth story.
  • It is still roughly two thirds of revenue at the basis quarter, so the valuation is far more sensitive to this line than to any of the optional ones — a point worth holding on to while reading the Optimus assumptions.
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