TSLA · Forward model · Automotive
What has to happen in Automotive
Model as of
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Automotive
Basis quarter$19.81B
Final quarter$23.19B
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix48%
Model 3/Y, Cybertruck and the next-gen platform, excluding FSD, which is carried separately. The cash engine that funds AI, robotics and energy — volume gated by pack capacity rather than demand, at mid-teens margins.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$20.75B
Estimated
2025 Q4
$17.18B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$15.65B
Estimated
2026 Q2
$19.81B
Estimated
Model 3 / Model YCybertruckNext-gen low-cost platformRegulatory credits
Units
480126/qtr
growing +1.5% per quarter
480,126 vehicles delivered in 2026 Q2 — a record second quarter, as reported.
Price per unit
$41264
drifting −0.7% per quarter
$41.3k average, backed out of automotive revenue less FSD, Semi and Robotaxi over deliveries.
Automotive
Latest: $23.19B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q2 | $16.27B |
| 2025Q3 | $20.75B |
| 2025Q4 | $17.18B |
| 2026Q1 | $15.65B |
| 2026Q2 | $19.81B |
| 2026Q3E | $19.97B |
| 2026Q4E | $20.13B |
| 2027Q1E | $20.28B |
| 2027Q2E | $20.45B |
| 2027Q3E | $20.61B |
| 2027Q4E | $20.77B |
| 2028Q1E | $20.93B |
| 2028Q2E | $21.10B |
| 2028Q3E | $21.26B |
| 2028Q4E | $21.43B |
| 2029Q1E | $21.60B |
| 2029Q2E | $21.77B |
| 2029Q3E | $21.94B |
| 2029Q4E | $22.12B |
| 2030Q1E | $22.29B |
| 2030Q2E | $22.47B |
| 2030Q3E | $22.65B |
| 2030Q4E | $22.82B |
| 2031Q1E | $23.00B |
| 2031Q2E | $23.19B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Modelled on units x price because Tesla's own constraint is physical: pack capacity caps units, and the next-gen platform lowers price deliberately. A single revenue growth rate would hide the fact that these two move in opposite directions.
- FSD revenue is NOT in this line. It is carved out into its own vertical, so this is vehicles at hardware margin only. Leaving it in would flatter automotive margin and hide the software story the whole thesis rests on.
- Margin glides 16% to 20% on scale and mix, which is deliberately unheroic. This line is modelled as a mature manufacturer that funds the rest of the company, not as a growth story.
- It is still roughly two thirds of revenue at the basis quarter, so the valuation is far more sensitive to this line than to any of the optional ones — a point worth holding on to while reading the Optimus assumptions.