TSLA · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 20 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Tesla reports THREE segments — Automotive, Energy generation and storage, and Services and other — and this model carries eight, because the three mix businesses with completely different economics. The three PARENTS are reported and exact for every quarter shown (2026 Q2: $20,516M / $3,139M / $4,581M, $28,236M total, per the 8-K Exhibit 99.1). What is estimated is the split INSIDE them: FSD, Semi, Robotaxi and Optimus are carved out of Automotive, and storage and solar out of Energy, because Tesla discloses none of those separately. Services and other is carried as reported. Basis is 2026 Q2, the latest print.
Shares this page's scenario. Driver and horizon edits stay in your browser — the recipient sees the published model.
Latest: $25.51B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q2 | $22.50B |
| 2025Q3 | $28.09B |
| 2025Q4 | $24.90B |
| 2026Q1 | $22.39B |
| 2026Q2 | $28.24B |
| 2026Q3E | $28.13B |
| 2026Q4E | $28.02B |
| 2027Q1E | $27.90B |
| 2027Q2E | $27.77B |
| 2027Q3E | $27.66B |
| 2027Q4E | $27.54B |
| 2028Q1E | $27.43B |
| 2028Q2E | $27.35B |
| 2028Q3E | $27.29B |
| 2028Q4E | $27.26B |
| 2029Q1E | $27.28B |
| 2029Q2E | $27.36B |
| 2029Q3E | $27.20B |
| 2029Q4E | $26.95B |
| 2030Q1E | $26.69B |
| 2030Q2E | $26.45B |
| 2030Q3E | $26.21B |
| 2030Q4E | $25.97B |
| 2031Q1E | $25.74B |
| 2031Q2E | $25.51B |
Where each case comes from
Elon case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Elon column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Autonomy is a regulatory problem, not a capability one
- Jul 28, 2026 Supervised FSD unequivocally saves lives, which means delays in country approvals costs lives!
- Jul 22, 2026 Delaying the approval of FSD in France will cost lives
- Jun 29, 2026 FSD v14 Lite rollout confirmation — capability shipping ahead of approval.
- Aug 12, 2026 Tesla FSD FTW — the recurring claim that cars running FSD are already superior to human drivers.
Robotaxi as a purpose-built network
Optimus as the biggest product ever
Semi and the electric freight line
From cash flow to fair value
The published model, discounted at 13.5% a year with an exit multiple of 4.0x on revenue. The horizon and sliders above do not change this walk.
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | −$15.77B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $103.43B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $14.51B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 4.0x |
| Terminal value | $413.71B |
| Discounted at 13.5% a year, terminal value becomes | $219.64B |
| Share of enterprise value from the terminal | 108% |
| Enterprise value | $203.87B |
| Net cash | $30.00B |
| Equity value | $233.87B |
| Shares | 3.53B |
| Fair value per share | $66.29 |
| Against the deployed price of $354.81, as of | −81% |
8x is a premium and is meant to be one. A sum of the parts, weighting each vertical by its terminal mix at sector multiples (autos 1.5x, storage 3x, FSD 15x, Robotaxi 8x), gives about 4x, because two thirds of terminal revenue is still hardware. 8x is held at double that because the terminal year is not a hardware business winding down — it is still compounding 11-13% a year at a 22% EBITDA margin, which is what separates it from a mature manufacturer and what the parts-based blend cannot see. The cost of that view is explicit: 8x revenue on a 22% margin is about 37x terminal EBITDA, the richest multiple of any model on this site, and it is a bet on the mix continuing to shift toward software and autonomy. For reference the current share price implies about 12x and Tesla trades near 14x trailing revenue today, so the premium here is still well short of what the market is paying. The multiple is a per-case input: Bear holds 4x, the parts-based number, and Bull 14x. Move the slider: at 4x the fair value is about $142 and at 12x about $402, so this one input swings the answer more than every operating assumption on this page combined.
Read the other way round: at $354.81 the market is paying 22.5x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
Capex outside the verticals
Each vertical's capex is a share of its own revenue, which is the right shape for capacity that scales with sales. These are not that: fixed-size programmes with their own schedule that spend whether or not any segment grows. They are added on top, and they are why free cash flow dips in the years below.
Terafab pilot fab (Giga Texas)
2026 Q3 → 2027 Q4Tesla's own research and pilot line, roughly $3B, running ahead of the joint facility. Small next to Tesla's ~$25B a year core capex, but it is additive to it.
Terafab phase 1 (Tesla share)
2028 Q1 → 2030 Q4The joint Tesla/SpaceX advanced fab, $16.8B announced for phase 1. The funding split has not been disclosed; 40% is assumed here for Tesla, which leads the research side while SpaceX leads volume manufacturing. Heavy spend lands 2028 through the early 2030s.
The projected path
The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.
| Quarter | Automotive | FSD / Autonomy | Tesla Semi | Robotaxi / Cybercab | Optimus | Energy Storage | Solar | Services & Other | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $19.47B | $720M | $113M | $12M | $0 | $2.87B | $320M | $4.62B | $28.13B | 0% | $2.51B | $5.60B | −$3.09B | −11 | −$2.99B |
| 2026 Q4E | $19.13B | $821M | $142M | $18M | $0 | $2.92B | $322M | $4.66B | $28.02B | +13% | $2.68B | $5.34B | −$2.66B | +3 | −$2.50B |
| 2027 Q1E | $18.80B | $904M | $179M | $25M | $0 | $2.98B | $324M | $4.69B | $27.90B | +25% | $2.83B | $5.12B | −$2.28B | +16 | −$2.08B |
| 2027 Q2E | $18.48B | $973M | $225M | $32M | $0 | $3.03B | $327M | $4.71B | $27.77B | −2% | $2.96B | $4.91B | −$1.95B | −9 | −$1.72B |
| 2027 Q3E | $18.16B | $1.03B | $283M | $40M | $8M | $3.08B | $330M | $4.73B | $27.66B | −2% | $3.07B | $4.74B | −$1.67B | −8 | −$1.43B |
| 2027 Q4E | $17.84B | $1.07B | $356M | $47M | $10M | $3.14B | $334M | $4.74B | $27.54B | −2% | $3.16B | $4.57B | −$1.42B | −7 | −$1.17B |
| 2028 Q1E | $17.53B | $1.11B | $447M | $55M | $11M | $3.20B | $337M | $4.74B | $27.43B | −2% | $3.24B | $4.49B | −$1.25B | −6 | −$1.01B |
| 2028 Q2E | $17.23B | $1.14B | $562M | $64M | $12M | $3.25B | $341M | $4.75B | $27.35B | −2% | $3.30B | $4.37B | −$1.06B | −5 | −$825M |
| 2028 Q3E | $16.93B | $1.16B | $707M | $73M | $14M | $3.31B | $346M | $4.75B | $27.29B | −1% | $3.36B | $4.26B | −$897M | −5 | −$675M |
| 2028 Q4E | $16.64B | $1.17B | $889M | $82M | $16M | $3.37B | $350M | $4.74B | $27.26B | −1% | $3.41B | $4.17B | −$756M | −4 | −$551M |
| 2029 Q1E | $16.35B | $1.18B | $1.12B | $92M | $18M | $3.43B | $355M | $4.73B | $27.28B | −1% | $3.46B | $4.10B | −$637M | −3 | −$450M |
| 2029 Q2E | $16.07B | $1.19B | $1.41B | $102M | $20M | $3.49B | $360M | $4.72B | $27.36B | 0% | $3.50B | $4.04B | −$539M | −2 | −$368M |
| 2029 Q3E | $15.79B | $1.19B | $1.46B | $113M | $23M | $3.56B | $365M | $4.70B | $27.20B | 0% | $3.54B | $3.95B | −$418M | −2 | −$277M |
| 2029 Q4E | $15.52B | $1.19B | $1.41B | $125M | $26M | $3.62B | $371M | $4.69B | $26.95B | −1% | $3.56B | $3.86B | −$298M | −2 | −$192M |
| 2030 Q1E | $15.25B | $1.19B | $1.36B | $137M | $29M | $3.69B | $377M | $4.67B | $26.69B | −2% | $3.59B | $3.78B | −$193M | −3 | −$120M |
| 2030 Q2E | $14.98B | $1.18B | $1.32B | $150M | $33M | $3.75B | $383M | $4.64B | $26.45B | −3% | $3.60B | $3.70B | −$100M | −4 | −$61M |
| 2030 Q3E | $14.73B | $1.18B | $1.28B | $164M | $37M | $3.82B | $389M | $4.62B | $26.21B | −4% | $3.62B | $3.63B | −$19M | −4 | −$11M |
| 2030 Q4E | $14.47B | $1.17B | $1.23B | $179M | $42M | $3.89B | $395M | $4.59B | $25.97B | −4% | $3.62B | $3.57B | $43M | −3 | $25M |
| 2031 Q1E | $14.22B | $1.16B | $1.19B | $195M | $48M | $3.96B | $402M | $4.56B | $25.74B | −4% | $3.63B | $2.95B | $555M | −1 | $304M |
| 2031 Q2E | $13.97B | $1.15B | $1.15B | $212M | $54M | $4.03B | $409M | $4.54B | $25.51B | −4% | $3.64B | $2.90B | $601M | −1 | $319M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | $272.39 | Rebased on the reported 2026 Q2 print: $28,236M revenue, $20,516M automotive, $3,139M energy, $4,581M services, 480,126 deliveries, 13.5 GWh deployed, capex $5,789M and free cash flow -$1,092M. Segment parents are now reported rather than apportioned; automotive ASP corrected from $34.0k to $41.3k and storage from $293 to $209 per kWh. |
| 2026-08-16 | $240.25 | Initial model, built off the 2026 Q1 print of $22.387B. Eight verticals apportioned from the three reported segments; Robotaxi holds its 1,000-car fleet flat until Cybercab deployment in 2026 Q4, Semi ramps from the Nevada line in 2026 after a pilot-scale 2025, and Optimus opens in 2027 Q3. |