← TSLA forward model

TSLA · Forward model · Energy Storage · Bear case

What has to happen in Energy Storage

Model as of

This page changes Energy Storage inside the complete TSLA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

TSLA forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $66.29 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $4.03B 16% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $4.02B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Vehicle demand stalls against a cheaper Chinese field, FSD approvals slip country by country, Robotaxi stays confined to a handful of metros, and Optimus does not sell externally inside the horizon. Storage keeps working.

Related research
In-Depth · SpaceX Uses Megapacks to Tame Its Gigawatt. Bloom Energy Sells the Megawatts Before the Grid Arrives. Tesla Megapacks stabilize volatile AI loads; Bloom fuel cells generate onsite before the grid arrives. Where each wins, and why data centers will use both. News · SpaceX Has Bought $835 Million of Megapacks. Musk's 10 GW Target Needs Nine to Twenty-Four Times That. SpaceX's 10-Q discloses $295M of Tesla Megapacks in Q2 and $329M in the half. The widely shared $1.1B total double-counts. The 10 GW build needs 32 to 88 GWh. News · Tesla's 50 GWh Megapack 3 Line Is Worth $10 Billion of Revenue. The Question Is Which Year. Megafactory Texas started Megapack 3 production. At Tesla's own $233 per kWh that is a $10B revenue line — against 49 GWh deployed in the last twelve months.

Energy Storage

Basis quarter$2.82B
Final quarter$4.03B
Implied CAGR+7%
Final revenue mix16%

Megapack and Powerwall. The other cash-generative business, sold by the gigawatt-hour, with a new Texas Megafactory adding 50 GWh a year of Megapack 3 capacity.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $3.11B Estimated
2025 Q4 $3.53B Estimated
2026 Q1 $2.09B Estimated
2026 Q2 $2.82B Estimated
MegapackPowerwallGrid services and VPPs
Units 14/qtr growing +6.0% per quarter 13.5 GWh deployed in 2026 Q2, up 41% year on year — as reported.
Price per unit $209M drifting −1.5% per quarter $209M per GWh ($209/kWh), the reported energy revenue less solar over GWh deployed.
Energy Storage

Latest: $4.03B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q2 $2.49B
2025Q3 $3.11B
2025Q4 $3.53B
2026Q1 $2.09B
2026Q2 $2.82B
2026Q3E $2.87B
2026Q4E $2.92B
2027Q1E $2.98B
2027Q2E $3.03B
2027Q3E $3.08B
2027Q4E $3.14B
2028Q1E $3.20B
2028Q2E $3.25B
2028Q3E $3.31B
2028Q4E $3.37B
2029Q1E $3.43B
2029Q2E $3.49B
2029Q3E $3.56B
2029Q4E $3.62B
2030Q1E $3.69B
2030Q2E $3.75B
2030Q3E $3.82B
2030Q4E $3.89B
2031Q1E $3.96B
2031Q2E $4.03B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Modelled per gigawatt-hour deployed rather than as a growth rate, because that is the unit Tesla reports and the unit the factories are sized in.
  • Deployments are capacity-constrained, not demand-constrained — the order book has run ahead of what the factories can ship for several years, which is why the growth rate is tied to capacity coming online.
  • Margin at 24% gliding to 30% assumes cell cost falls faster than ASP does. That gap is the entire margin story, and it has held so far but is not guaranteed.
  • This is the second-largest line and by far the least contested. If the model is wrong about Tesla, it is unlikely to be wrong here.
TSLA model map

Explore another vertical