SPCX · Forward model · Space · Bear case
What has to happen in Space
Model as of
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Space
Basis quarter$960M
Final quarter$936M
Implied CAGR−1%
Final revenue mix3%
External commercial and government launch plus Dragon crew/cargo and Starship development milestones. A cost centre with strategic optionality: it subsidises the other two segments at internal cost and only approaches break-even as Starship reusability lands.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$950M
Estimated
2025 Q4
$900M
Estimated
2026 Q1
$450M
Estimated
2026 Q2
$960M
Reported
External Falcon 9 / Heavy launchesDragon crew and cargoStarship development milestones (HLS)
Units
15/qtr
growing +4.0% per quarter
15 external flights a quarter. Internal Starlink launches are a cost, not segment revenue.
Price per unit
$64M
drifting −1.0% per quarter
$64M average across commercial, government and Dragon, from $960M of Q2 revenue over the flight count.
Space
Latest: $936M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $1.20B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.05B |
| 2025Q3 | $950M |
| 2025Q4 | $900M |
| 2026Q1 | $450M |
| 2026Q2 | $960M |
| 2026Q3E | $959M |
| 2026Q4E | $958M |
| 2027Q1E | $956M |
| 2027Q2E | $955M |
| 2027Q3E | $954M |
| 2027Q4E | $953M |
| 2028Q1E | $951M |
| 2028Q2E | $950M |
| 2028Q3E | $949M |
| 2028Q4E | $948M |
| 2029Q1E | $946M |
| 2029Q2E | $945M |
| 2029Q3E | $944M |
| 2029Q4E | $943M |
| 2030Q1E | $942M |
| 2030Q2E | $940M |
| 2030Q3E | $939M |
| 2030Q4E | $938M |
| 2031Q1E | $937M |
| 2031Q2E | $936M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Only external customers are counted. Internal Starlink launches are by far the larger share of flights but are an internal cost transfer, not revenue — treating them as revenue would double-count the constellation the Connectivity segment already pays for.
- Modelled on flights x price because both move independently and in opposite directions: Starship adds cadence while reusability lowers what the market will pay per kilogram. A revenue growth rate would collapse two opposing forces into one number.
- Margin starts deeply negative at -35% and glides only to 8% by the end of the horizon. Starship development is expensed here while its benefit accrues to Connectivity, so this segment carries cost for value that shows up in another line.
- This is the segment where the model is least sensitive and least confident. It is roughly 5% of revenue by the final quarter, so even a large error barely moves the fair value — but a Starship schedule slip would also slow the constellation, and that does move it.