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What has to happen in Space

Model as of

This page changes Space inside the complete SPCX model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

SPCX forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $882.19 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $4.15B 2% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution −$7.41B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Musk's own stated targets, taken at face value and translated into per-vertical growth: Starlink 10x on V3 bandwidth, Terrestrial AI at 10 GW and $30-50 a watt, Starlink Mobile at hundreds of millions of devices, Starship at a flight a day, and orbital compute scaling toward a million satellites. Two legs have no Musk post behind them and are ours. Developer Platform is our extension of the announced Cursor purchase and the Origin launch - Origin displaces GitHub outright and agent-driven seats keep compounding, which gets the line to roughly $31B a year against Cursor's $4B run rate today. Model layer is pushed to a 60% terminal share of the pool: Grok does not just compete with Anthropic and OpenAI, it becomes the default, worth about $36B a quarter by 2031 Q2 against $0.55B today. Note what the case does NOT reach: his $100B ARR by end-2026 needs a step-change no driver here produces off a $7.81B quarter, and $1T by 2030 sits above even this case. And note what the 60% share costs to believe - it is a bigger business than every megawatt SpaceX leases to everyone else, which is the arithmetic the case has to answer.

Space

Basis quarter$960M
Final quarter$4.15B
Implied CAGR+34%
Final revenue mix2%

External commercial and government launch plus Dragon crew/cargo and Starship development milestones. A cost centre with strategic optionality: it subsidises the other two segments at internal cost and only approaches break-even as Starship reusability lands.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $950M Estimated
2025 Q4 $900M Estimated
2026 Q1 $450M Estimated
2026 Q2 $960M Reported
External Falcon 9 / Heavy launchesDragon crew and cargoStarship development milestones (HLS)
Units 15/qtr growing +4.0% per quarter 15 external flights a quarter. Internal Starlink launches are a cost, not segment revenue.
Price per unit $64M drifting −1.0% per quarter $64M average across commercial, government and Dragon, from $960M of Q2 revenue over the flight count.
Space

Latest: $4.15B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $1.20B
2025Q2 $1.05B
2025Q3 $950M
2025Q4 $900M
2026Q1 $450M
2026Q2 $960M
2026Q3E $1.03B
2026Q4E $1.11B
2027Q1E $1.20B
2027Q2E $1.29B
2027Q3E $1.38B
2027Q4E $1.49B
2028Q1E $1.60B
2028Q2E $1.72B
2028Q3E $1.85B
2028Q4E $2.00B
2029Q1E $2.15B
2029Q2E $2.31B
2029Q3E $2.49B
2029Q4E $2.67B
2030Q1E $2.88B
2030Q2E $3.10B
2030Q3E $3.33B
2030Q4E $3.58B
2031Q1E $3.86B
2031Q2E $4.15B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Only external customers are counted. Internal Starlink launches are by far the larger share of flights but are an internal cost transfer, not revenue — treating them as revenue would double-count the constellation the Connectivity segment already pays for.
  • Modelled on flights x price because both move independently and in opposite directions: Starship adds cadence while reusability lowers what the market will pay per kilogram. A revenue growth rate would collapse two opposing forces into one number.
  • Margin starts deeply negative at -35% and glides only to 8% by the end of the horizon. Starship development is expensed here while its benefit accrues to Connectivity, so this segment carries cost for value that shows up in another line.
  • This is the segment where the model is least sensitive and least confident. It is roughly 5% of revenue by the final quarter, so even a large error barely moves the fair value — but a Starship schedule slip would also slow the constellation, and that does move it.
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