SPCX · Forward model · Starlink · Bear case
What has to happen in Starlink
Model as of
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Starlink
Basis quarter$4.29B
Final quarter$9.19B
Implied CAGR+16%
Final revenue mix30%
The whole dish-and-antenna business: consumer broadband, the better-priced enterprise, maritime, aviation and rail book, Starshield government work, and the light direct-to-cell messaging service partners resell today. Consumer ARPU falls as emerging markets mix in; the non-consumer book is what carries the segment.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$3.00B
Estimated
2025 Q4
$3.25B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$3.50B
Estimated
2026 Q2
$4.29B
Reported
Consumer broadbandEnterprise / maritime / aviation / railGovernment (Starshield)Direct-to-cell messaging (light service, via carriers)
Subscribers
12.0M
9.2% of a 130.0M addressable base
12.0M subscribers, as disclosed with the Q2 2026 print — under 10% of the addressable base.
Addressable subscribers
130.0M
the S-curve ceiling
Households without usable fixed broadband that can bear this ARPU — not population. See the notes.
Net adds
1.5M/qtr
ramping toward 2.6M/qtr, throttled as the base approaches the TAM
1.5M a quarter today. Terminals and satellite capacity, not demand, are the binding constraint.
Net-add ceiling
2.6M/qtr
what supply can deliver at full rate
2.6M a quarter once V3 raises capacity per launch. Adds ramp toward this; they do not compound freely.
ARPU
$66.00/mo
drifting −2.5% per quarter, floor $45.00
$66 a month, down from $85 a year earlier. The fall is mix, not discounting.
Non-subscriber revenue
$1.91B/qtr
growing +9.0% per quarter
$1.91B a quarter of enterprise, maritime, aviation, rail and Starshield, including light direct-to-cell.
Starlink
Latest: $9.19B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $2.40B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.75B |
| 2025Q3 | $3.00B |
| 2025Q4 | $3.25B |
| 2026Q1 | $3.50B |
| 2026Q2 | $4.29B |
| 2026Q3E | $4.54B |
| 2026Q4E | $4.79B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.04B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.28B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.51B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.74B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.95B |
| 2028Q2E | $6.17B |
| 2028Q3E | $6.38B |
| 2028Q4E | $6.58B |
| 2029Q1E | $6.79B |
| 2029Q2E | $6.99B |
| 2029Q3E | $7.20B |
| 2029Q4E | $7.40B |
| 2030Q1E | $7.62B |
| 2030Q2E | $7.90B |
| 2030Q3E | $8.21B |
| 2030Q4E | $8.53B |
| 2031Q1E | $8.85B |
| 2031Q2E | $9.19B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Modelled bottom-up on subscribers x ARPU rather than a growth rate, because the two halves move in opposite directions: the base keeps compounding while price per user falls on mix. A single growth number would hide exactly the tension that decides this segment.
- The non-subscriber book is not derived - it is backed out as segment revenue less subscribers x ARPU, which puts it at $1.91B a quarter, about 45% of the segment against the disclosed ~42% enterprise/government share. The residual absorbs any error in the ARPU split.
- Margin glides 61% to 66% because constellation cost is largely fixed once launched, so each added subscriber and each enterprise contract drops through at high incremental margin. Capex intensity falls 34% to 22% as V3 satellites raise capacity per launch.
- The load-bearing risk is ARPU, not subscribers. Held flat at $66 instead of drifting down, this segment alone is worth materially more; at the $45 floor it is worth much less. Kuiper is the reason the floor might bind sooner than modelled.
- Today's direct-to-cell service belongs here, not in Starlink Mobile. It runs on ~650 first-generation satellites at roughly 2-4 Mbps - texting, location and light apps in dead zones - and it is sold as a bolt-on by carriers, so it is already inside this segment's non-subscriber book. About 22M monthly actives as of the August 2026 all-hands, up from ~10M earlier in the year.