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SOFI · Forward model · Financial Services · Bear case

What has to happen in Financial Services

Model as of

This page changes Financial Services inside the complete SOFI model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

SOFI forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $7.21 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $574M 40% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $3.13B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The three things that can break a lender at once. Credit turns, so the 55% Lending contribution margin gives back the improvement it has made; deposit costs stop falling, so the 6.05% revenue yield on the book compresses faster than the glide assumes; and the pool of third-party buyers for loans thins, so the Loan Platform Business fee that made record originations possible without record balance-sheet growth gets smaller. SoFi names all three risks itself. The tell is already in the guidance: management raised the revenue outlook for 2026 and left adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income and adjusted EPS exactly where they were, which is what growth being reinvested rather than banked looks like.

Financial Services

Basis quarter$466M
Final quarter$574M
Implied CAGR+4%
Final revenue mix40%

The diversification story and the second-largest line: $466.3M of net revenue, up 29%, at a 46% contribution margin. SoFi Money deposits, the credit card, Invest, Relay, interchange, referrals and SoFi Plus subscriptions. The unit is the member — 15.8 million of them, up 35%, with 24.4 million products at an all-time-high 1.54 products each and 51% of new products opened by existing members. The tension the model has to carry is that members grew faster than this segment's revenue, so revenue per member went DOWN over the year even as cross-buy went up.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $420M Reported
2025 Q4 $457M Estimated
2026 Q1 $429M Reported
2026 Q2 $466M Reported
SoFi Money deposits and interchangeCredit cardSoFi Invest brokerageRelaySoFi Plus subscriptionsReferral and partner fees
Subscribers 15.8M 13.2% of a 120.0M addressable base 15.8 million members at 30 June 2026, up 35%. The unit SoFi guides on directly.
Addressable subscribers 120.0M the S-curve ceiling US adults who bank primarily online. SoFi puts its own share of deposit and investment markets under 1%.
Net adds 1.1M/qtr ramping toward 1.2M/qtr, throttled as the base approaches the TAM 1.1 million members added in the basis quarter, the disclosed figure rather than a fitted one.
Net-add ceiling 1.2M/qtr what supply can deliver at full rate 1.2 million a quarter. Base holds member adds roughly flat rather than assuming they keep accelerating.
ARPU $9.84/mo drifting +0.2% per quarter, floor $8.00 $466.3M over 15.8M members over three months. It FELL from $10.33 a year ago, which is what base has to answer.
Non-subscriber revenue $0/qtr growing 0.0% per quarter Zero. Every dollar of this segment is earned on the member base; there is no non-member line to carve out.
Financial Services

Latest: $574M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $238M
2024Q4 $257M
2025Q1 $303M
2025Q2 $363M
2025Q3 $420M
2025Q4 $457M
2026Q1 $429M
2026Q2 $466M
2026Q3E $481M
2026Q4E $495M
2027Q1E $507M
2027Q2E $518M
2027Q3E $528M
2027Q4E $536M
2028Q1E $544M
2028Q2E $551M
2028Q3E $557M
2028Q4E $562M
2029Q1E $566M
2029Q2E $570M
2029Q3E $572M
2029Q4E $574M
2030Q1E $576M
2030Q2E $576M
2030Q3E $577M
2030Q4E $576M
2031Q1E $575M
2031Q2E $574M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Revenue per member fell over the year: $10.33 a month in the basis quarter of 2025 against $9.84 now, because members grew 35% while this segment's revenue grew 29%. Cross-buy at 51% is the argument that the gap closes; the filings have not shown it closing yet.
  • Contribution margin went the same way — 52% a year ago, 46% now — on member incentives and lead generation. The model glides it back up to 50%, which is an assumption about acquisition spend paying back, not a disclosed trend.
  • Deposits sit inside this segment's net interest income but fund the Lending book, so the two lines are not independent: a deposit dollar earns here and lends there, which is the whole point of the one-stop-shop pitch and the reason a segment-level model understates the linkage.
  • SoFi Plus reached 206 thousand paid subscribers after its relaunch as a paid subscription. Management has put a target of one million members and about $120M of annual revenue on it, which would be roughly 6% of this line at the current run rate.
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