SOFI · Forward model · Lending · Bear case
What has to happen in Lending
Model as of
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Lending
Still the company. $724.8M of net revenue in the basis quarter, up 63%, and $399.0M of contribution profit at a 55% margin — 57% of reportable segment revenue and 64% of segment contribution. Personal, student and home loans, earning net interest income on what SoFi keeps and origination and platform fees on what it sells. What caps it is the earning asset: $47.9B of loans funded by a $45.5B deposit base at a 5.98% net interest margin. That makes the loan book the driver and the revenue yield on it the monetisation, which is also where the rate cycle shows up.
Latest: $844M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $396M |
| 2024Q4 | $418M |
| 2025Q1 | $413M |
| 2025Q2 | $444M |
| 2025Q3 | $493M |
| 2025Q4 | $499M |
| 2026Q1 | $642M |
| 2026Q2 | $725M |
| 2026Q3E | $764M |
| 2026Q4E | $797M |
| 2027Q1E | $825M |
| 2027Q2E | $848M |
| 2027Q3E | $866M |
| 2027Q4E | $881M |
| 2028Q1E | $892M |
| 2028Q2E | $900M |
| 2028Q3E | $906M |
| 2028Q4E | $909M |
| 2029Q1E | $909M |
| 2029Q2E | $908M |
| 2029Q3E | $905M |
| 2029Q4E | $900M |
| 2030Q1E | $893M |
| 2030Q2E | $886M |
| 2030Q3E | $877M |
| 2030Q4E | $867M |
| 2031Q1E | $856M |
| 2031Q2E | $844M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The loan book is the driver because deposits are the funding and the funding is the moat: SoFi paid 156 basis points less on deposits than on warehouse facilities in the basis quarter, which it puts at about $712.6M of annualised interest expense saved.
- Revenue yield of about 6.05% a year on the book is net interest margin plus fee income. Management says net interest margin stays above 5% for the foreseeable future, which is the ceiling this line's price drift is walking down toward.
- The Loan Platform Business originates for third parties — $3.1B of the record $10.7B of personal-loan volume in the basis quarter — so some Lending revenue is fee income on loans that never join the book. That makes the yield on the book drift up, not down, and it is a reason the price input is not purely a margin.
- Credit is the thing that breaks this line. Reported personal-loan annualised charge-offs were 2.62%, but the all-in rate including late-stage delinquent loan sales was about 3.7%. Contribution margin, not revenue, is where a credit turn would show up first.