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SOFI · Forward model · Financial Services · Bull case

What has to happen in Financial Services

Model as of

This page changes Financial Services inside the complete SOFI model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

SOFI forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $28.31 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.42B 46% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $6.09B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The mix shift actually happens. Cross-buy at 51% — up sixteen points in a year — turns into revenue per member rising instead of falling, and the Technology Platform rebuilds the account base it lost, so the two capital-light lines grow faster than the loan book. This is the case that gets fee-based revenue over half of the total, which is the condition SoFi itself attaches to the return target. What it does NOT assume is any improvement in Lending: the loan book and its yield follow base here, and the entire difference is the two lines that are 45% of reportable revenue today.

Financial Services

Basis quarter$466M
Final quarter$1.42B
Implied CAGR+25%
Final revenue mix46%

The diversification story and the second-largest line: $466.3M of net revenue, up 29%, at a 46% contribution margin. SoFi Money deposits, the credit card, Invest, Relay, interchange, referrals and SoFi Plus subscriptions. The unit is the member — 15.8 million of them, up 35%, with 24.4 million products at an all-time-high 1.54 products each and 51% of new products opened by existing members. The tension the model has to carry is that members grew faster than this segment's revenue, so revenue per member went DOWN over the year even as cross-buy went up.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $420M Reported
2025 Q4 $457M Estimated
2026 Q1 $429M Reported
2026 Q2 $466M Reported
SoFi Money deposits and interchangeCredit cardSoFi Invest brokerageRelaySoFi Plus subscriptionsReferral and partner fees
Subscribers 15.8M 13.2% of a 120.0M addressable base 15.8 million members at 30 June 2026, up 35%. The unit SoFi guides on directly.
Addressable subscribers 120.0M the S-curve ceiling US adults who bank primarily online. SoFi puts its own share of deposit and investment markets under 1%.
Net adds 1.1M/qtr ramping toward 1.2M/qtr, throttled as the base approaches the TAM 1.1 million members added in the basis quarter, the disclosed figure rather than a fitted one.
Net-add ceiling 1.2M/qtr what supply can deliver at full rate 1.2 million a quarter. Base holds member adds roughly flat rather than assuming they keep accelerating.
ARPU $9.84/mo drifting +0.2% per quarter, floor $8.00 $466.3M over 15.8M members over three months. It FELL from $10.33 a year ago, which is what base has to answer.
Non-subscriber revenue $0/qtr growing 0.0% per quarter Zero. Every dollar of this segment is earned on the member base; there is no non-member line to carve out.
Financial Services

Latest: $1.42B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $238M
2024Q4 $257M
2025Q1 $303M
2025Q2 $363M
2025Q3 $420M
2025Q4 $457M
2026Q1 $429M
2026Q2 $466M
2026Q3E $503M
2026Q4E $541M
2027Q1E $581M
2027Q2E $621M
2027Q3E $662M
2027Q4E $704M
2028Q1E $747M
2028Q2E $792M
2028Q3E $838M
2028Q4E $884M
2029Q1E $932M
2029Q2E $982M
2029Q3E $1.03B
2029Q4E $1.08B
2030Q1E $1.14B
2030Q2E $1.19B
2030Q3E $1.25B
2030Q4E $1.30B
2031Q1E $1.36B
2031Q2E $1.42B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Revenue per member fell over the year: $10.33 a month in the basis quarter of 2025 against $9.84 now, because members grew 35% while this segment's revenue grew 29%. Cross-buy at 51% is the argument that the gap closes; the filings have not shown it closing yet.
  • Contribution margin went the same way — 52% a year ago, 46% now — on member incentives and lead generation. The model glides it back up to 50%, which is an assumption about acquisition spend paying back, not a disclosed trend.
  • Deposits sit inside this segment's net interest income but fund the Lending book, so the two lines are not independent: a deposit dollar earns here and lends there, which is the whole point of the one-stop-shop pitch and the reason a segment-level model understates the linkage.
  • SoFi Plus reached 206 thousand paid subscribers after its relaunch as a paid subscription. Management has put a target of one million members and about $120M of annual revenue on it, which would be roughly 6% of this line at the current run rate.
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