SOFI · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

The revenue split is fully reported. SoFi publishes net revenue AND contribution profit for all three reportable segments every quarter, plus the Corporate/Other column, and the four sum exactly to consolidated total net revenue. Six of the eight quarters here are lifted straight from a filed segment table; the two fourth quarters are the full year less the nine months, which is arithmetic on two filed tables rather than an apportionment. Corporate/Other is modelled as a FOURTH vertical rather than folded into overhead, because it is a revenue line — unallocated net interest expense at the holding company plus the elimination of intersegment Technology Platform fees — and dropping it would put the model's top line 4.7% above reported revenue in the basis quarter. It carries negative revenue, and it has changed sign inside the history window: it was positive $15.97M across the first nine months of 2024 and negative $56.9M in the basis quarter, so its projection is the weakest line on this page. What is genuinely ASSUMED is nothing on the revenue side and everything about the shape of the future: contribution margin is disclosed per segment so the vertical margins are real, but the split of capital expenditure by segment is not disclosed and is held flat across the three operating lines, and the unallocated corporate expense that turns contribution into pre-tax income is a single derived percentage of revenue. One structural caveat that matters more here than for any software model on this site: this model's free cash flow is EBITDA less capex less tax, which for a bank measures operating cash generation BEFORE the balance-sheet build. SoFi's reported free cash flow on the site's own definition was negative $3.99B in the basis quarter, because originating loans consumes cash. Those are different questions and the model answers the first one. On the projection itself: base lands 2026 at $5.03B of GAAP total net revenue against a guide of $4.75-4.85B on ADJUSTED net revenue - roughly 4% high once the ~$50M a year the two bases differ by is allowed for. The gap is not a tuning error, it is the guide: SoFi's second-half outlook implies almost flat sequential revenue immediately after a quarter that grew 10.8% sequentially, and the near-term projection here is set by disclosed levels - a $47.9B loan book at a 6.05% revenue yield, 15.8 million members at $9.84 a month - not by a growth rate that could be dialled down to meet it. Bending those inputs to hit a guide SoFi has raised twice would be the dishonest move, so the gap is left visible. Base lands 2028 at $7.69B against the $7.89B on the company's own 2028 slide, so the Noto case has real work to do rather than restating the base. Second, read the EBITDA column carefully: it runs about 17% of revenue where SoFi reports a 30% adjusted EBITDA margin. Both are right. Segment contribution less unallocated corporate expense reconciles to GAAP income before income taxes, which is what this model projects; SoFi's adjusted figure adds back share-based expense and depreciation. Share count is held flat here, so charging the share-based expense to cash flow is the consistent treatment - if the dilution is not in the share count it has to be somewhere.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.