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SOFI · Forward model · Financial Services · Noto case

What has to happen in Financial Services

Model as of

This page changes Financial Services inside the complete SOFI model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

SOFI forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $36.90 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.73B 47% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $7.13B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The 2028 slide taken literally: adjusted net revenue compounding 30% a year from 2025 to $7.89B, adjusted EPS compounding 38-42% to $1.02-1.12, and return on tangible common equity reaching the 20-30% band. Every line is lifted here, because a 30% company CAGR cannot be carried by the 45% of revenue that is not Lending. Note how little of this case is the revenue target: base already reaches $7.69B in 2028 against the $7.89B on the slide, so the top line is about 3% of the claim. The hard half is everything below it - SoFi's own bridge gets to 25% ROTCE from a 25% adjusted net income margin multiplied by a revenue-to-equity ratio of one, and the basis quarter runs a 13% margin on $9.5B of tangible equity. That is what the margin delta and the exit multiple in this case are paying for, and what the disclosure cannot yet test.

Financial Services

Basis quarter$466M
Final quarter$1.73B
Implied CAGR+30%
Final revenue mix47%

The diversification story and the second-largest line: $466.3M of net revenue, up 29%, at a 46% contribution margin. SoFi Money deposits, the credit card, Invest, Relay, interchange, referrals and SoFi Plus subscriptions. The unit is the member — 15.8 million of them, up 35%, with 24.4 million products at an all-time-high 1.54 products each and 51% of new products opened by existing members. The tension the model has to carry is that members grew faster than this segment's revenue, so revenue per member went DOWN over the year even as cross-buy went up.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $420M Reported
2025 Q4 $457M Estimated
2026 Q1 $429M Reported
2026 Q2 $466M Reported
SoFi Money deposits and interchangeCredit cardSoFi Invest brokerageRelaySoFi Plus subscriptionsReferral and partner fees
Subscribers 15.8M 13.2% of a 120.0M addressable base 15.8 million members at 30 June 2026, up 35%. The unit SoFi guides on directly.
Addressable subscribers 120.0M the S-curve ceiling US adults who bank primarily online. SoFi puts its own share of deposit and investment markets under 1%.
Net adds 1.1M/qtr ramping toward 1.2M/qtr, throttled as the base approaches the TAM 1.1 million members added in the basis quarter, the disclosed figure rather than a fitted one.
Net-add ceiling 1.2M/qtr what supply can deliver at full rate 1.2 million a quarter. Base holds member adds roughly flat rather than assuming they keep accelerating.
ARPU $9.84/mo drifting +0.2% per quarter, floor $8.00 $466.3M over 15.8M members over three months. It FELL from $10.33 a year ago, which is what base has to answer.
Non-subscriber revenue $0/qtr growing 0.0% per quarter Zero. Every dollar of this segment is earned on the member base; there is no non-member line to carve out.
Financial Services

Latest: $1.73B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $238M
2024Q4 $257M
2025Q1 $303M
2025Q2 $363M
2025Q3 $420M
2025Q4 $457M
2026Q1 $429M
2026Q2 $466M
2026Q3E $508M
2026Q4E $552M
2027Q1E $598M
2027Q2E $645M
2027Q3E $695M
2027Q4E $747M
2028Q1E $801M
2028Q2E $857M
2028Q3E $915M
2028Q4E $975M
2029Q1E $1.04B
2029Q2E $1.10B
2029Q3E $1.17B
2029Q4E $1.24B
2030Q1E $1.32B
2030Q2E $1.39B
2030Q3E $1.47B
2030Q4E $1.55B
2031Q1E $1.64B
2031Q2E $1.73B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Revenue per member fell over the year: $10.33 a month in the basis quarter of 2025 against $9.84 now, because members grew 35% while this segment's revenue grew 29%. Cross-buy at 51% is the argument that the gap closes; the filings have not shown it closing yet.
  • Contribution margin went the same way — 52% a year ago, 46% now — on member incentives and lead generation. The model glides it back up to 50%, which is an assumption about acquisition spend paying back, not a disclosed trend.
  • Deposits sit inside this segment's net interest income but fund the Lending book, so the two lines are not independent: a deposit dollar earns here and lends there, which is the whole point of the one-stop-shop pitch and the reason a segment-level model understates the linkage.
  • SoFi Plus reached 206 thousand paid subscribers after its relaunch as a paid subscription. Management has put a target of one million members and about $120M of annual revenue on it, which would be roughly 6% of this line at the current run rate.
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