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RKLB · Forward model · Neutron · Beck case

What has to happen in Neutron

Model as of

This page changes Neutron inside the complete RKLB model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

RKLB forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $149.89 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $547M 23% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $341M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

What Beck's own stated end-state requires: a self-launching, tier-1 space power operating its own constellations. Terminal revenue of $8.8bn a year, 22.7% EBITDA margins, and an exit at 20x revenue - which is 88x the EBITDA the model produces. It gets to $149.34. Two things it does NOT reach. First, the implied Neutron cadence is about 11.4 flights a quarter, more than double the five-a-quarter ceiling this model's own driver sets; a scenario is a revenue tilt, not a rebuilt cadence ramp, so read that line as 'launch revenue of this scale', not as a manifest. Second, even here the value is almost entirely the exit multiple: the explicit five years of free cash flow are close to nothing, so this case is a bet on what the market pays in 2031, not on cash the business generates before then.

Neutron

Basis quarter$0
Final quarter$547M
Final revenue mix23%

The medium-lift, reusable-ready vehicle that takes Rocket Lab out of the small-lift niche and into the market Falcon 9 owns. It has no revenue and no reported past. What decides it is the date of the first commercial flight and how fast cadence ramps behind it.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $0 Reported
2025 Q4 $0 Reported
2026 Q1 $0 Reported
2026 Q2 $0 Reported
Commercial medium-liftNational-security launch
Units 1/qtr growing +12.0% per quarter One flight in the first revenue quarter. The company's own early framing is one, then three, then five a year.
Price per unit $52M drifting −0.5% per quarter Mid of the $50-55M per-launch figure management and sell-side notes both use. Rocket Lab has published no price.
Neutron

Latest: $547M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q2 $0.00
2023Q3 $0.00
2023Q4 $0.00
2024Q1 $0.00
2024Q2 $0.00
2024Q3 $0.00
2024Q4 $0.00
2025Q1 $0.00
2025Q2 $0.00
2025Q3 $0.00
2025Q4 $0.00
2026Q1 $0.00
2026Q2 $0.00
2026Q3E $0.00
2026Q4E $0.00
2027Q1E $0.00
2027Q2E $0.00
2027Q3E $71M
2027Q4E $82M
2028Q1E $95M
2028Q2E $110M
2028Q3E $128M
2028Q4E $148M
2029Q1E $172M
2029Q2E $200M
2029Q3E $233M
2029Q4E $271M
2030Q1E $315M
2030Q2E $366M
2030Q3E $426M
2030Q4E $495M
2031Q1E $526M
2031Q2E $547M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Neutron has no reported revenue and no segment of its own, so it carries zero across every historical quarter and starts in the projection. No early ramp has been invented for it.
  • Neutron development is expensed as research and development rather than capitalised, so the spending already sits inside corporate overhead - this is not a vertical whose costs the model has lost.
  • First revenue is set four quarters out, at 2027 Q3. Rocket Lab targets delivery to the pad in Q4 2026; this model books nothing in the quarter of a first flight.
  • The $52M per launch is the single most load-bearing assumption in this model and it is not a company figure. Move that input before arguing with the fair value.
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