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RKLB · Forward model · Neutron · Bear case

What has to happen in Neutron

Model as of

This page changes Neutron inside the complete RKLB model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

RKLB forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $12.38 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $58M 9% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution −$87M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Neutron slips a year and never gets past about 1.2 flights a quarter, Space Systems growth normalises toward the defence budget, and margins come in five points below the disclosed segment gross margins. The exit multiple falls to 6x revenue - what a slower-growing space manufacturer would fetch. Fair value $12.33.

Neutron

Basis quarter$0
Final quarter$58M
Final revenue mix9%

The medium-lift, reusable-ready vehicle that takes Rocket Lab out of the small-lift niche and into the market Falcon 9 owns. It has no revenue and no reported past. What decides it is the date of the first commercial flight and how fast cadence ramps behind it.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $0 Reported
2025 Q4 $0 Reported
2026 Q1 $0 Reported
2026 Q2 $0 Reported
Commercial medium-liftNational-security launch
Units 1/qtr growing +12.0% per quarter One flight in the first revenue quarter. The company's own early framing is one, then three, then five a year.
Price per unit $52M drifting −0.5% per quarter Mid of the $50-55M per-launch figure management and sell-side notes both use. Rocket Lab has published no price.
Neutron

Latest: $58M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q2 $0.00
2023Q3 $0.00
2023Q4 $0.00
2024Q1 $0.00
2024Q2 $0.00
2024Q3 $0.00
2024Q4 $0.00
2025Q1 $0.00
2025Q2 $0.00
2025Q3 $0.00
2025Q4 $0.00
2026Q1 $0.00
2026Q2 $0.00
2026Q3E $0.00
2026Q4E $0.00
2027Q1E $0.00
2027Q2E $0.00
2027Q3E $40M
2027Q4E $42M
2028Q1E $43M
2028Q2E $45M
2028Q3E $47M
2028Q4E $49M
2029Q1E $50M
2029Q2E $52M
2029Q3E $54M
2029Q4E $57M
2030Q1E $59M
2030Q2E $61M
2030Q3E $64M
2030Q4E $66M
2031Q1E $63M
2031Q2E $58M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Neutron has no reported revenue and no segment of its own, so it carries zero across every historical quarter and starts in the projection. No early ramp has been invented for it.
  • Neutron development is expensed as research and development rather than capitalised, so the spending already sits inside corporate overhead - this is not a vertical whose costs the model has lost.
  • First revenue is set four quarters out, at 2027 Q3. Rocket Lab targets delivery to the pad in Q4 2026; this model books nothing in the quarter of a first flight.
  • The $52M per launch is the single most load-bearing assumption in this model and it is not a company figure. Move that input before arguing with the fair value.
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