← RKLB forward model

RKLB · Forward model · Space Systems · Beck case

What has to happen in Space Systems

Model as of

This page changes Space Systems inside the complete RKLB model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

RKLB forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $149.89 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $871M 36% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $2.57B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

What Beck's own stated end-state requires: a self-launching, tier-1 space power operating its own constellations. Terminal revenue of $8.8bn a year, 22.7% EBITDA margins, and an exit at 20x revenue - which is 88x the EBITDA the model produces. It gets to $149.34. Two things it does NOT reach. First, the implied Neutron cadence is about 11.4 flights a quarter, more than double the five-a-quarter ceiling this model's own driver sets; a scenario is a revenue tilt, not a rebuilt cadence ramp, so read that line as 'launch revenue of this scale', not as a manifest. Second, even here the value is almost entirely the exit multiple: the explicit five years of free cash flow are close to nothing, so this case is a bet on what the market pays in 2031, not on cash the business generates before then.

Space Systems

Basis quarter$189M
Final quarter$871M
Implied CAGR+36%
Final revenue mix36%

Satellites, buses, components, separation systems, solar arrays, radios and flight software, sold to commercial and government customers and increasingly as prime contractor rather than supplier. It is the larger segment and the one carrying the $2.36bn backlog.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $114M Reported
2025 Q4 $104M Estimated
2026 Q1 $137M Reported
2026 Q2 $189M Reported
Spacecraft and constellation prime contractsComponents and subsystemsSoftware and mission services
Sequential growth +9.0%/qtr decaying toward +3.0% Below the 38.6% the June quarter jumped and the ~13% a quarter the trailing year implies; one quarter is not a trend.
Space Systems

Latest: $871M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q2 $40M
2023Q3 $46M
2023Q4 $52M
2024Q1 $60M
2024Q2 $77M
2024Q3 $84M
2024Q4 $90M
2025Q1 $87M
2025Q2 $98M
2025Q3 $114M
2025Q4 $104M
2026Q1 $137M
2026Q2 $189M
2026Q3E $212M
2026Q4E $235M
2027Q1E $259M
2027Q2E $285M
2027Q3E $311M
2027Q4E $338M
2028Q1E $367M
2028Q2E $397M
2028Q3E $427M
2028Q4E $460M
2029Q1E $493M
2029Q2E $528M
2029Q3E $564M
2029Q4E $602M
2030Q1E $642M
2030Q2E $684M
2030Q3E $727M
2030Q4E $773M
2031Q1E $821M
2031Q2E $871M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Growth is the honest driver here: the segment reports no unit count, no per-quarter backlog conversion and no price, so nothing better is knowable from what Rocket Lab discloses.
  • Segment gross margin stands in for EBITDA margin, as in Launch Services, because operating expenses are not disclosed by segment and all of them sit in corporate overhead.
  • Mynaric and Motiv both closed inside the reported history, so this growth rate blends organic and acquired revenue and the disclosure does not let the model separate them.
RKLB model map

Explore another vertical