← RKLB forward model

RKLB · Forward model · Neutron · Bull case

What has to happen in Neutron

Model as of

This page changes Neutron inside the complete RKLB model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

RKLB forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $77.53 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $336M 19% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $45M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Neutron beats the ceiling in this model at about seven flights a quarter, Iridium's spectrum converts into standards-based device volume, and margins run four points above the disclosed segment gross margins as scale arrives. Exit at 14x revenue. Fair value $77.17 - roughly the current price. Note what that means: paying $72.95 today is underwriting the bull case, not the base one.

Neutron

Basis quarter$0
Final quarter$336M
Final revenue mix19%

The medium-lift, reusable-ready vehicle that takes Rocket Lab out of the small-lift niche and into the market Falcon 9 owns. It has no revenue and no reported past. What decides it is the date of the first commercial flight and how fast cadence ramps behind it.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $0 Reported
2025 Q4 $0 Reported
2026 Q1 $0 Reported
2026 Q2 $0 Reported
Commercial medium-liftNational-security launch
Units 1/qtr growing +12.0% per quarter One flight in the first revenue quarter. The company's own early framing is one, then three, then five a year.
Price per unit $52M drifting −0.5% per quarter Mid of the $50-55M per-launch figure management and sell-side notes both use. Rocket Lab has published no price.
Neutron

Latest: $336M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q2 $0.00
2023Q3 $0.00
2023Q4 $0.00
2024Q1 $0.00
2024Q2 $0.00
2024Q3 $0.00
2024Q4 $0.00
2025Q1 $0.00
2025Q2 $0.00
2025Q3 $0.00
2025Q4 $0.00
2026Q1 $0.00
2026Q2 $0.00
2026Q3E $0.00
2026Q4E $0.00
2027Q1E $0.00
2027Q2E $0.00
2027Q3E $62M
2027Q4E $71M
2028Q1E $80M
2028Q2E $91M
2028Q3E $103M
2028Q4E $116M
2029Q1E $132M
2029Q2E $150M
2029Q3E $170M
2029Q4E $193M
2030Q1E $219M
2030Q2E $248M
2030Q3E $282M
2030Q4E $320M
2031Q1E $332M
2031Q2E $336M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Neutron has no reported revenue and no segment of its own, so it carries zero across every historical quarter and starts in the projection. No early ramp has been invented for it.
  • Neutron development is expensed as research and development rather than capitalised, so the spending already sits inside corporate overhead - this is not a vertical whose costs the model has lost.
  • First revenue is set four quarters out, at 2027 Q3. Rocket Lab targets delivery to the pad in Q4 2026; this model books nothing in the quarter of a first flight.
  • The $52M per launch is the single most load-bearing assumption in this model and it is not a company figure. Move that input before arguing with the fair value.
RKLB model map

Explore another vertical