RKLB · Forward model · Iridium services · Beck case
What has to happen in Iridium services
Model as of
This page changes Iridium services inside the complete RKLB model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Iridium services
Basis quarter$0
Final quarter$848M
Final revenue mix35%
The pending acquisition: an operating LEO constellation with globally harmonised L-band spectrum, 2.6 million billable subscribers and a recurring services base. It is the recurring-revenue layer Rocket Lab does not otherwise have, and it is not owned yet.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$0
Reported
2025 Q4
$0
Reported
2026 Q1
$0
Reported
2026 Q2
$0
Reported
Commercial voice, data, IoT and broadbandUS Government servicesSubscriber equipment and engineering services
Subscribers
2.6M
21.9% of a 12.0M addressable base
2.627 million billable subscribers at 30 June 2026, disclosed in Iridium's own quarterly report.
Addressable subscribers
12.0M
the S-curve ceiling
Satellite IoT, safety-of-life and remote-asset devices. Iridium publishes no such figure; this one is ours.
Net adds
36K/qtr
ramping toward 90K/qtr, throttled as the base approaches the TAM
144,000 billable subscribers added year on year, divided by four quarters.
Net-add ceiling
90K/qtr
what supply can deliver at full rate
Two and a half times today's pace, if NTN Direct and PNT open standards-based device volumes.
ARPU
$20.47/mo
drifting +0.2% per quarter, floor $0.00
$161.3M of services revenue over three months and 2.627 million subscribers.
Non-subscriber revenue
$64M/qtr
growing +1.0% per quarter
$20.8M of subscriber equipment plus $43.1M of engineering and support services in the June quarter.
Iridium services
Latest: $848M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2023Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2023Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q3E | $0.00 |
| 2026Q4E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q1E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q2E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q3E | $298M |
| 2027Q4E | $319M |
| 2028Q1E | $342M |
| 2028Q2E | $366M |
| 2028Q3E | $392M |
| 2028Q4E | $420M |
| 2029Q1E | $450M |
| 2029Q2E | $483M |
| 2029Q3E | $518M |
| 2029Q4E | $556M |
| 2030Q1E | $596M |
| 2030Q2E | $640M |
| 2030Q3E | $687M |
| 2030Q4E | $737M |
| 2031Q1E | $791M |
| 2031Q2E | $848M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Iridium is not owned. The line carries zero across every historical quarter and starts four quarters out, which is the mid-2027 close both companies have guided to.
- The share count and net cash in this model are already pro-forma for the deal, so switching this vertical off would leave the valuation carrying the cost of an acquisition it never made.
- Iridium closed its own Aireon acquisition on 2 July 2026, after the quarter this base reads, so the starting revenue understates what Rocket Lab would actually be buying.
- The subscriber base is held flat through the four delay quarters because the engine starts a delayed line from its stated base - roughly 36,000 adds a quarter of understatement.
- Rocket Lab's preliminary purchase price allocation marks the L-band spectrum at $3.3155bn - 43.7% of the $7.59bn consideration and 1.72x the $1.927bn it assigns to the constellation - but a revenue-times-margin line has nowhere to put a non-earning asset, so this model still carries none of it and fair value excludes it.
- The margins here are Iridium management's own: its standalone forecast filed with the merger registration statement implies 55.5% adjusted EBITDA in 2027 rising to 64.2% by 2035, against the 45% to 50% this model assumed before the forecast was public.
- That same forecast puts unlevered free cash flow at $(21)M in 2031 on constellation replacement capital expenditure, which lands at the end of this horizon - so the exit multiple is struck on revenue just ahead of a capex step the capital intensity here does not represent.