RKLB · Forward model · Neutron
What has to happen in Neutron
Model as of
This page changes Neutron inside the complete RKLB model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Neutron
Basis quarter$0
Final quarter$250M
Final revenue mix21%
The medium-lift, reusable-ready vehicle that takes Rocket Lab out of the small-lift niche and into the market Falcon 9 owns. It has no revenue and no reported past. What decides it is the date of the first commercial flight and how fast cadence ramps behind it.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$0
Reported
2025 Q4
$0
Reported
2026 Q1
$0
Reported
2026 Q2
$0
Reported
Commercial medium-liftNational-security launch
Units
1/qtr
growing +12.0% per quarter
One flight in the first revenue quarter. The company's own early framing is one, then three, then five a year.
Price per unit
$52M
drifting −0.5% per quarter
Mid of the $50-55M per-launch figure management and sell-side notes both use. Rocket Lab has published no price.
Neutron
Latest: $250M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2023Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2023Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q3E | $0.00 |
| 2026Q4E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q1E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q2E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q3E | $58M |
| 2027Q4E | $65M |
| 2028Q1E | $72M |
| 2028Q2E | $80M |
| 2028Q3E | $90M |
| 2028Q4E | $100M |
| 2029Q1E | $112M |
| 2029Q2E | $125M |
| 2029Q3E | $140M |
| 2029Q4E | $156M |
| 2030Q1E | $175M |
| 2030Q2E | $195M |
| 2030Q3E | $219M |
| 2030Q4E | $245M |
| 2031Q1E | $250M |
| 2031Q2E | $250M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Neutron has no reported revenue and no segment of its own, so it carries zero across every historical quarter and starts in the projection. No early ramp has been invented for it.
- Neutron development is expensed as research and development rather than capitalised, so the spending already sits inside corporate overhead - this is not a vertical whose costs the model has lost.
- First revenue is set four quarters out, at 2027 Q3. Rocket Lab targets delivery to the pad in Q4 2026; this model books nothing in the quarter of a first flight.
- The $52M per launch is the single most load-bearing assumption in this model and it is not a company figure. Move that input before arguing with the fair value.