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RKLB · Forward model · Launch Services · Bear case

What has to happen in Launch Services

Model as of

This page changes Launch Services inside the complete RKLB model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

RKLB forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $12.38 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $65M 10% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $172M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Neutron slips a year and never gets past about 1.2 flights a quarter, Space Systems growth normalises toward the defence budget, and margins come in five points below the disclosed segment gross margins. The exit multiple falls to 6x revenue - what a slower-growing space manufacturer would fetch. Fair value $12.33.

Launch Services

Basis quarter$45M
Final quarter$65M
Implied CAGR+8%
Final revenue mix10%

Electron and its suborbital HASTE variant, sold as dedicated small-lift missions. Revenue is flights times price per flight, and what caps it is how many vehicles the Long Beach and Auckland lines can build and fly in a quarter - a constraint the company publishes.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $41M Reported
2025 Q4 $76M Estimated
2026 Q1 $64M Reported
2026 Q2 $45M Reported
Electron dedicated and rideshareHASTE suborbital hypersonic test
Units 6/qtr growing +3.5% per quarter Six Electron flights in the June quarter, from the twelve the 10-Q reports for the first half.
Price per unit $7M drifting +1.0% per quarter $44.6M of Launch Services revenue over six flights. Blended across Electron and HASTE, not a price list.
Launch Services

Latest: $65M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q2 $22M
2023Q3 $21M
2023Q4 $8M
2024Q1 $33M
2024Q2 $29M
2024Q3 $21M
2024Q4 $42M
2025Q1 $36M
2025Q2 $47M
2025Q3 $41M
2025Q4 $76M
2026Q1 $64M
2026Q2 $45M
2026Q3E $46M
2026Q4E $47M
2027Q1E $48M
2027Q2E $49M
2027Q3E $50M
2027Q4E $51M
2028Q1E $52M
2028Q2E $53M
2028Q3E $54M
2028Q4E $55M
2029Q1E $56M
2029Q2E $57M
2029Q3E $58M
2029Q4E $59M
2030Q1E $60M
2030Q2E $61M
2030Q3E $62M
2030Q4E $63M
2031Q1E $64M
2031Q2E $65M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Segment gross margin stands in for the vertical's EBITDA margin because Rocket Lab states it does not review operating expenses by segment; all R&D and SG&A sits in corporate overhead instead.
  • Launch Services revenue includes HASTE and non-launch services, so revenue per Electron flight is a blended figure and the company warns launches and revenue do not track each other.
  • Quarterly launch revenue is lumpy: $75.9M in 2025 Q4 against $44.6M in 2026 Q2 on similar cadence, because recognition depends on mission type and timing.
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