RKLB · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 20 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Rocket Lab reports two segments, Launch Services and Space Systems, and discloses revenue AND gross profit for both - so the split here is reported, not apportioned, and the only estimated quarters are the three fiscal fourth quarters derived as the full year less the nine months. Neutron and Iridium are separate verticals with no reported past: both carry zero across every historical quarter and start in the projection, which is why nothing has been split out of a disclosed segment to create them. What is assumed rather than reported is everything below gross profit: the 10-Q states management does not review operating expenses by segment, so all research and development and all selling, general and administrative expense sits in the single corporate overhead figure, and every margin glide and capex intensity is the model's own. Overhead is one flat percentage of consolidated revenue; it was 45% in the June quarter on a non-GAAP basis excluding depreciation, and 26% is the flat rate that spends the same dollars over the horizon as an opex base growing at 55% of the rate of revenue - about 22% of revenue by the terminal quarter. The near quarters are therefore flattered and the terminal ones about right. Share count and net cash are pro-forma for the Iridium acquisition at the 20 August price: 598.2M common plus 40.9M preferred, plus 39.2M issued as the stock leg, plus 26.7M if the $1.944bn equity programme is fully drawn; net cash is the June balance sheet less the $2.861bn cash leg, plus those equity proceeds, less Iridium's $1.775bn term loan. That leaves the combined company with roughly no net cash, which is itself a finding.
Neutron slips a year and never gets past about 1.2 flights a quarter, Space Systems growth normalises toward the defence budget, and margins come in five points below the disclosed segment gross margins. The exit multiple falls to 6x revenue - what a slower-growing space manufacturer would fetch. Fair value $12.33.
Latest: $672M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q2 | $62M |
| 2023Q3 | $68M |
| 2023Q4 | $60M |
| 2024Q1 | $93M |
| 2024Q2 | $106M |
| 2024Q3 | $105M |
| 2024Q4 | $132M |
| 2025Q1 | $123M |
| 2025Q2 | $144M |
| 2025Q3 | $155M |
| 2025Q4 | $180M |
| 2026Q1 | $200M |
| 2026Q2 | $234M |
| 2026Q3E | $248M |
| 2026Q4E | $262M |
| 2027Q1E | $274M |
| 2027Q2E | $287M |
| 2027Q3E | $545M |
| 2027Q4E | $556M |
| 2028Q1E | $567M |
| 2028Q2E | $578M |
| 2028Q3E | $588M |
| 2028Q4E | $598M |
| 2029Q1E | $607M |
| 2029Q2E | $617M |
| 2029Q3E | $626M |
| 2029Q4E | $635M |
| 2030Q1E | $643M |
| 2030Q2E | $652M |
| 2030Q3E | $660M |
| 2030Q4E | $669M |
| 2031Q1E | $671M |
| 2031Q2E | $672M |
What drives each segment
Launch Services
Units × priceElectron and its suborbital HASTE variant, sold as dedicated small-lift missions. Revenue is flights times price per flight, and what caps it is how many vehicles the Long Beach and Auckland lines can build and fly in a quarter - a constraint the company publishes.
Latest: $65M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q2 | $22M |
| 2023Q3 | $21M |
| 2023Q4 | $8M |
| 2024Q1 | $33M |
| 2024Q2 | $29M |
| 2024Q3 | $21M |
| 2024Q4 | $42M |
| 2025Q1 | $36M |
| 2025Q2 | $47M |
| 2025Q3 | $41M |
| 2025Q4 | $76M |
| 2026Q1 | $64M |
| 2026Q2 | $45M |
| 2026Q3E | $46M |
| 2026Q4E | $47M |
| 2027Q1E | $48M |
| 2027Q2E | $49M |
| 2027Q3E | $50M |
| 2027Q4E | $51M |
| 2028Q1E | $52M |
| 2028Q2E | $53M |
| 2028Q3E | $54M |
| 2028Q4E | $55M |
| 2029Q1E | $56M |
| 2029Q2E | $57M |
| 2029Q3E | $58M |
| 2029Q4E | $59M |
| 2030Q1E | $60M |
| 2030Q2E | $61M |
| 2030Q3E | $62M |
| 2030Q4E | $63M |
| 2031Q1E | $64M |
| 2031Q2E | $65M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Segment gross margin stands in for the vertical's EBITDA margin because Rocket Lab states it does not review operating expenses by segment; all R&D and SG&A sits in corporate overhead instead.
- Launch Services revenue includes HASTE and non-launch services, so revenue per Electron flight is a blended figure and the company warns launches and revenue do not track each other.
- Quarterly launch revenue is lumpy: $75.9M in 2025 Q4 against $44.6M in 2026 Q2 on similar cadence, because recognition depends on mission type and timing.
Neutron
Units × priceThe medium-lift, reusable-ready vehicle that takes Rocket Lab out of the small-lift niche and into the market Falcon 9 owns. It has no revenue and no reported past. What decides it is the date of the first commercial flight and how fast cadence ramps behind it.
Latest: $58M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2023Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2023Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q3E | $0.00 |
| 2026Q4E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q1E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q2E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q3E | $40M |
| 2027Q4E | $42M |
| 2028Q1E | $43M |
| 2028Q2E | $45M |
| 2028Q3E | $47M |
| 2028Q4E | $49M |
| 2029Q1E | $50M |
| 2029Q2E | $52M |
| 2029Q3E | $54M |
| 2029Q4E | $57M |
| 2030Q1E | $59M |
| 2030Q2E | $61M |
| 2030Q3E | $64M |
| 2030Q4E | $66M |
| 2031Q1E | $63M |
| 2031Q2E | $58M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Neutron has no reported revenue and no segment of its own, so it carries zero across every historical quarter and starts in the projection. No early ramp has been invented for it.
- Neutron development is expensed as research and development rather than capitalised, so the spending already sits inside corporate overhead - this is not a vertical whose costs the model has lost.
- First revenue is set four quarters out, at 2027 Q3. Rocket Lab targets delivery to the pad in Q4 2026; this model books nothing in the quarter of a first flight.
- The $52M per launch is the single most load-bearing assumption in this model and it is not a company figure. Move that slider before arguing with the fair value.
Space Systems
Growth pathSatellites, buses, components, separation systems, solar arrays, radios and flight software, sold to commercial and government customers and increasingly as prime contractor rather than supplier. It is the larger segment and the one carrying the $2.36bn backlog.
Latest: $355M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q2 | $40M |
| 2023Q3 | $46M |
| 2023Q4 | $52M |
| 2024Q1 | $60M |
| 2024Q2 | $77M |
| 2024Q3 | $84M |
| 2024Q4 | $90M |
| 2025Q1 | $87M |
| 2025Q2 | $98M |
| 2025Q3 | $114M |
| 2025Q4 | $104M |
| 2026Q1 | $137M |
| 2026Q2 | $189M |
| 2026Q3E | $202M |
| 2026Q4E | $215M |
| 2027Q1E | $227M |
| 2027Q2E | $238M |
| 2027Q3E | $248M |
| 2027Q4E | $258M |
| 2028Q1E | $268M |
| 2028Q2E | $277M |
| 2028Q3E | $285M |
| 2028Q4E | $293M |
| 2029Q1E | $301M |
| 2029Q2E | $308M |
| 2029Q3E | $315M |
| 2029Q4E | $321M |
| 2030Q1E | $328M |
| 2030Q2E | $333M |
| 2030Q3E | $339M |
| 2030Q4E | $345M |
| 2031Q1E | $350M |
| 2031Q2E | $355M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Growth is the honest driver here: the segment reports no unit count, no per-quarter backlog conversion and no price, so nothing better is knowable from what Rocket Lab discloses.
- Segment gross margin stands in for EBITDA margin, as in Launch Services, because operating expenses are not disclosed by segment and all of them sit in corporate overhead.
- Mynaric and Motiv both closed inside the reported history, so this growth rate blends organic and acquired revenue and the disclosure does not let the model separate them.
Iridium services
Subscribers × ARPUThe pending acquisition: an operating LEO constellation with globally harmonised L-band spectrum, 2.6 million billable subscribers and a recurring services base. It is the recurring-revenue layer Rocket Lab does not otherwise have, and it is not owned yet.
Latest: $194M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2023Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2023Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q3E | $0.00 |
| 2026Q4E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q1E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q2E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q3E | $206M |
| 2027Q4E | $205M |
| 2028Q1E | $204M |
| 2028Q2E | $203M |
| 2028Q3E | $202M |
| 2028Q4E | $201M |
| 2029Q1E | $200M |
| 2029Q2E | $199M |
| 2029Q3E | $199M |
| 2029Q4E | $198M |
| 2030Q1E | $197M |
| 2030Q2E | $197M |
| 2030Q3E | $196M |
| 2030Q4E | $195M |
| 2031Q1E | $195M |
| 2031Q2E | $194M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Iridium is not owned. The line carries zero across every historical quarter and starts four quarters out, which is the mid-2027 close both companies have guided to.
- The share count and net cash in this model are already pro-forma for the deal, so switching this vertical off would leave the valuation carrying the cost of an acquisition it never made.
- Iridium closed its own Aireon acquisition on 2 July 2026, after the quarter this base reads, so the starting revenue understates what Rocket Lab would actually be buying.
- The subscriber base is held flat through the four delay quarters because the engine starts a delayed line from its stated base - roughly 36,000 adds a quarter of understatement.
- Neither company has valued the L-band spectrum separately anywhere in the public record, so this model assigns it nothing beyond the subscriber and services revenue it already carries.
Where each case comes from
Beck case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Beck column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The Iridium acquisition, in Beck's own words
- Jun 29, 2026 This is a defining moment for the space industry and the start of a new era of strategic, accelerated growth for Rocket Lab and Iridium.
- Jun 29, 2026 if you want to do large scale communications globally, you must have spectrum. And for us, this deal really enables us to accelerate our entry into this market.
- Jun 29, 2026 We're not investing in hopes and dreams. We're not pushing all the chips into the center of the table. We're doing another really smart deal. We're buying capability that ensures that it's accretive to the bottom line.
The end-state, and the schedule it rests on
- Aug 10, 2026 Together, these moves position Rocket Lab to accelerate our future into space applications by becoming a self-launching, tier-1 space power that will deliver critical communications capability to millions of users worldwide.
- Aug 10, 2026 Production of the Stage 1 tank is currently aligned with the target delivery of Neutron to the launch pad in Q4 2026.
- Aug 10, 2026 Q2 2026 saw our backlog grow to $2.36 billion - another record - which, combined with new deals in the period since, equates to more than $1 billion in new contracts across launch and space systems already entered into in Q3.
- Aug 13, 2026 Filing the Form S-4 and the FCC applications and receiving U.S. antitrust clearance are all major steps for us in the execution timeline for the Iridium acquisition.
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | -$491M |
| Terminal-year revenue | $2.67B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $278M |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 6.0x |
| Terminal value | $16.04B |
| Discounted at 11.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $9.52B |
| Enterprise value | $9.03B |
| Net cash | -$334M |
| Equity value | $8.69B |
| Diluted shares | 0.70B |
| Fair value per share | $12.33 |
| Against the current price of $72.95 | -83% |
9.0x is what Rocket Lab itself agreed to pay for a mature space-comms business: $8.0bn of enterprise value over Iridium's $884M of trailing revenue. It is the cleanest comparable in the file because it is an actual transaction, not a screen.
Read the other way round: at $72.95 the market is paying 32.9x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
| Quarter | Launch Services | Neutron | Space Systems | Iridium services | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $46M | $0 | $202M | $0 | $248M | +60% | $14M | $36M | -$23M | +51 | -$22M |
| 2026 Q4E | $47M | $0 | $215M | $0 | $262M | +46% | $15M | $36M | -$21M | +37 | -$20M |
| 2027 Q1E | $48M | $0 | $227M | $0 | $274M | +37% | $17M | $37M | -$20M | +30 | -$18M |
| 2027 Q2E | $49M | $0 | $238M | $0 | $287M | +22% | $18M | $37M | -$18M | +16 | -$17M |
| 2027 Q3E | $50M | $40M | $248M | $206M | $545M | +120% | $32M | $94M | -$62M | +108 | -$55M |
| 2027 Q4E | $51M | $42M | $258M | $205M | $556M | +113% | $36M | $93M | -$57M | +102 | -$49M |
| 2028 Q1E | $52M | $43M | $268M | $204M | $567M | +107% | $39M | $92M | -$53M | +97 | -$44M |
| 2028 Q2E | $53M | $45M | $277M | $203M | $578M | +101% | $42M | $91M | -$48M | +93 | -$39M |
| 2028 Q3E | $54M | $47M | $285M | $202M | $588M | +8% | $45M | $90M | -$44M | +0 | -$35M |
| 2028 Q4E | $55M | $49M | $293M | $201M | $598M | +7% | $48M | $89M | -$40M | +1 | -$31M |
| 2029 Q1E | $56M | $50M | $301M | $200M | $607M | +7% | $51M | $88M | -$37M | +1 | -$28M |
| 2029 Q2E | $57M | $52M | $308M | $199M | $617M | +7% | $54M | $87M | -$33M | +1 | -$24M |
| 2029 Q3E | $58M | $54M | $315M | $199M | $626M | +6% | $57M | $87M | -$30M | +2 | -$21M |
| 2029 Q4E | $59M | $57M | $321M | $198M | $635M | +6% | $59M | $86M | -$27M | +2 | -$19M |
| 2030 Q1E | $60M | $59M | $328M | $197M | $643M | +6% | $62M | $86M | -$24M | +2 | -$16M |
| 2030 Q2E | $61M | $61M | $333M | $197M | $652M | +6% | $64M | $86M | -$22M | +2 | -$14M |
| 2030 Q3E | $62M | $64M | $339M | $196M | $660M | +6% | $66M | $86M | -$19M | +3 | -$12M |
| 2030 Q4E | $63M | $66M | $345M | $195M | $669M | +5% | $69M | $86M | -$17M | +3 | -$11M |
| 2031 Q1E | $64M | $63M | $350M | $195M | $671M | +4% | $71M | $85M | -$14M | +2 | -$8M |
| 2031 Q2E | $65M | $58M | $355M | $194M | $672M | +3% | $73M | $83M | -$11M | +1 | -$6M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | all | $33.09 | First publication. Two disclosed segments plus Neutron and Iridium as delayed lines with no reported past; exit multiple anchored to the 9.0x Rocket Lab itself agreed to pay for Iridium. |