RKLB · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-25

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

Rocket Lab reports two segments, Launch Services and Space Systems, and discloses revenue AND gross profit for both - so the split here is reported, not apportioned, and the only estimated quarters are the three fiscal fourth quarters derived as the full year less the nine months. Neutron and Iridium are separate verticals with no reported past: both carry zero across every historical quarter and start in the projection, which is why nothing has been split out of a disclosed segment to create them. What is assumed rather than reported is everything below gross profit: the 10-Q states management does not review operating expenses by segment, so all research and development and all selling, general and administrative expense sits in the single corporate overhead figure, and every margin glide and capex intensity is the model's own. Overhead is one flat percentage of consolidated revenue; it was 45% in the June quarter on a non-GAAP basis excluding depreciation, and 26% is the flat rate that spends the same dollars over the horizon as an opex base growing at 55% of the rate of revenue - about 22% of revenue by the terminal quarter. The near quarters are therefore flattered and the terminal ones about right. Share count and net cash are pro-forma for the Iridium acquisition at the 20 August price: 598.2M common plus 40.9M preferred, plus 39.2M issued as the stock leg, plus 26.7M if the $1.944bn equity programme is fully drawn; net cash is the June balance sheet less the $2.861bn cash leg, plus those equity proceeds, less Iridium's $1.775bn term loan. That leaves the combined company with roughly no net cash, which is itself a finding.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.