PLTR · Forward model · U.S. commercial · Bull case
What has to happen in U.S. commercial
Model as of
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U.S. commercial
The engine and the entire stock narrative. $764M in the basis quarter, up 149% year-over-year and 28% sequentially, from 653 customers — a customer count that grew only 35%. The gap between those two numbers is the business: existing accounts expanding, at 157% net dollar retention, from an AIP bootcamp at one operating unit to a portfolio-wide contract. The volume unit is the customer; the monetisation is revenue per customer, which more than doubled year-over-year. This is the one box with a published driver, and it is the box Karp's eighteen-month commitment is denominated in.
Latest: $11.03B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $179M |
| 2024Q4 | $214M |
| 2025Q1 | $255M |
| 2025Q2 | $306M |
| 2025Q3 | $397M |
| 2025Q4 | $507M |
| 2026Q1 | $595M |
| 2026Q2 | $764M |
| 2026Q3E | $955M |
| 2026Q4E | $1.17B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.42B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.70B |
| 2027Q3E | $2.01B |
| 2027Q4E | $2.35B |
| 2028Q1E | $2.72B |
| 2028Q2E | $3.12B |
| 2028Q3E | $3.56B |
| 2028Q4E | $4.03B |
| 2029Q1E | $4.54B |
| 2029Q2E | $5.09B |
| 2029Q3E | $5.67B |
| 2029Q4E | $6.29B |
| 2030Q1E | $6.96B |
| 2030Q2E | $7.67B |
| 2030Q3E | $8.43B |
| 2030Q4E | $9.25B |
| 2031Q1E | $10.11B |
| 2031Q2E | $11.03B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Revenue per customer is the whole story: 653 customers, up 35%, produced revenue up 149%. Expansion, not new logos, is doing the work, and net dollar retention of 157% is the number that has to hold for the model to.
- The customer count is a trailing-twelve-month definition, so an account that stops paying rolls off with a lag. At an accelerating base the count slightly overstates the live paying set, which flatters revenue per customer downward rather than upward.
- This is the only box with a published volume unit, which is why it carries a real driver and the other three do not. Treat the contrast as information about disclosure, not about the businesses.
- Modelled as capacity rather than as a subscription because the engine's subscription curve compounds ARPU drift forever with no glide, and 157% net dollar retention extrapolated over twenty quarters is not a forecast, it is an arithmetic accident.
- Revenue per account carries the whole expansion story. Account growth contributes about a third of the projected increase; the rest is existing accounts spending more, which is exactly how the last four quarters worked.