PLTR · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-24

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

Palantir publishes the two axes SEPARATELY, never as a grid. Segment revenue (Government, Commercial) is reported with a contribution margin for each; geography is reported as United States and rest of world with no segment split. The four boxes are reachable because U.S. commercial and U.S. government revenue appear in the release highlights every quarter, so the two international boxes are exact residuals: segment revenue less the U.S. figure. That arithmetic reconciles — for the basis quarter it gives $181.4M international commercial and $181.0M international government, summing to $362.5M against the disclosed $362.417M rest-of-world, the $47K gap being the rounding of the U.S. figures to the million. The CFO independently stated $182M and $181M for those two lines on the Q2 call, which confirms the method rather than replacing it. What is genuinely ASSUMED is the MARGIN split by geography. Contribution margin is disclosed by segment only — 78% commercial and 71% government in the basis quarter — so both commercial boxes carry 78% and both government boxes carry 71%, and any real difference between U.S. and international economics is invisible here. Note also that contribution is defined as segment revenue less cost of revenue and sales and marketing only: research and development, general and administrative and ALL stock-based compensation are unallocated, and sit in the corporate layer, which is what makes contribution less overhead reconcile exactly to GAAP income from operations. Volume units are disclosed for one box only. Palantir publishes a U.S. commercial customer count (653) and a total trailing-twelve-month customer count (1,049), but never a government, international or per-geography count, so three of the four boxes have no knowable driver. On the projection itself: the base case honours the raised U.S. commercial guide, landing 2026 at $3.44B against the "in excess of $3.424B" Palantir guided, and lands the company at $8.28B against the $8.150-8.158B total guide - about 1.5% high. The two guides cannot both bind unless government and international decelerate abruptly in the second half, and that gap is the conservatism in a guide Palantir has raised every quarter. It is left visible rather than tuned away. One consequence of putting all stock compensation in the corporate layer: free cash flow here runs near 36% of revenue where Palantir's reported figure runs above 60%, because the reported number adds stock compensation back and pays almost no cash tax against accumulated losses. This model charges both - 27.1% of revenue in overhead including the full $265M quarterly stock-compensation expense, and the 23.0% long-run tax rate Palantir itself uses for adjusted EPS. That is the conservative reading, and it is the consistent one, because share count is held flat: if the dilution is not charged to the share count it has to be charged to the cash flow. Every historical bar carries the estimated-split marker, which is correct - consolidated revenue is reported in every quarter, but two of the four boxes inside it are derived by subtraction in every quarter.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.