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MRNA · Forward model · Other revenue · Bull case

What has to happen in Other revenue

Model as of

This page changes Other revenue inside the complete MRNA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

MRNA forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $42.71 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $109M 43% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $939M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The three August 2026 events reach the revenue line: mFLUSIVA approved on 5 August for adults 50 and older in time for the 2026-27 season, the European Commission joint procurement for up to 24 million mRESVIA doses, and the first positive Phase 3 for an individualised neoantigen therapy on 19 August. None of the three is in guidance. This case expresses them as a compounding tilt across the whole franchise; it does NOT reach cash breakeven in 2028, and it books no intismeran revenue, because Merck leads that commercialisation.

Other revenue

Basis quarter$51M
Final quarter$109M
Implied CAGR+16%
Final revenue mix43%

Stand-ready manufacturing income from the UK, Canada and Australia onshore facilities plus collaboration, grant and licensing revenue. It is contractual rather than seasonal and it is the only line growing dependably: stand-ready alone ran 12, 17, 20, 31, 32, 31 ($M) from 2025 Q1 to 2026 Q2 and is now 61% of the vertical.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $43M Reported
2025 Q4 $32M Estimated
2026 Q1 $37M Reported
2026 Q2 $51M Reported
Stand-ready manufacturing revenueCollaboration revenueGrant revenueLicensing and royalty revenue
Sequential growth +2.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% Stand-ready manufacturing is contractual and has risen every quarter since it began in 2025 Q1; collaboration carries the Recordati amortisation.
Other revenue

Latest: $109M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $34M
2023Q2 $51M
2023Q3 $74M
2023Q4 $18M
2024Q1 $0.00
2024Q2 $57M
2024Q3 $42M
2024Q4 $28M
2025Q1 $22M
2025Q2 $28M
2025Q3 $43M
2025Q4 $32M
2026Q1 $37M
2026Q2 $51M
2026Q3E $53M
2026Q4E $56M
2027Q1E $58M
2027Q2E $60M
2027Q3E $63M
2027Q4E $65M
2028Q1E $68M
2028Q2E $71M
2028Q3E $73M
2028Q4E $76M
2029Q1E $79M
2029Q2E $82M
2029Q3E $85M
2029Q4E $88M
2030Q1E $91M
2030Q2E $94M
2030Q3E $98M
2030Q4E $101M
2031Q1E $105M
2031Q2E $109M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Deliberately aseasonal. Three calendar-share windows give [0.77, 1.15, 1.67, 0.41], [0.00, 1.80, 1.32, 0.88] and [0.70, 0.90, 1.38, 1.02]; on the centred moving-average method the window-to-window spread exceeds the signal on all four quarters. The variation is composition, not season.
  • What moved between windows was the mix: a $30M one-off licensing payment landed in 2024 Q2, a $50M Recordati upfront began amortising into collaboration revenue in 2026 Q2, and stand-ready manufacturing revenue did not exist at all before 2025 Q1.
  • The 70% margin is assumed and split-free: stand-ready revenue carries cost of sales while collaboration, grant and royalty income largely does not, and Moderna discloses no cost split across the four streams.
  • Four of the fourteen quarters are derived from annual-minus-nine-month arithmetic and are flagged estimated; the four derived 2025 quarters sum to $125M against a disclosed FY2025 $126M, which is annual-table rounding.
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