MRNA · Forward model · RSV vaccine (mRESVIA) · Bull case
What has to happen in RSV vaccine (mRESVIA)
Model as of
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RSV vaccine (mRESVIA)
Basis quarter$3M
Final quarter$6M
Implied CAGR+16%
Final revenue mix2%
mRESVIA is approved in 40 countries and has never earned more than $15M in a quarter; eight post-launch quarters total $43M. The European Commission joint procurement signed in Q2 2026 for up to 24 million doses is the first contract large enough to change that, and it carries no disclosed price, value or delivery schedule.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$2M
Reported
2025 Q4
$4M
Estimated
2026 Q1
$7M
Reported
2026 Q2
$3M
Reported
mRESVIA (mRNA-1345)
Sequential growth
+1.5%/qtr
decaying toward +1.0%
Held on the disclosed run rate. The EC procurement has no published price or schedule, so it cannot be sized without inventing one.
RSV vaccine (mRESVIA)
Latest: $6M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2023Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2023Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2023Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q3 | $10M |
| 2024Q4 | $15M |
| 2025Q1 | $2M |
| 2025Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q3 | $2M |
| 2025Q4 | $4M |
| 2026Q1 | $7M |
| 2026Q2 | $3M |
| 2026Q3E | $3M |
| 2026Q4E | $3M |
| 2027Q1E | $3M |
| 2027Q2E | $4M |
| 2027Q3E | $4M |
| 2027Q4E | $4M |
| 2028Q1E | $4M |
| 2028Q2E | $4M |
| 2028Q3E | $4M |
| 2028Q4E | $4M |
| 2029Q1E | $5M |
| 2029Q2E | $5M |
| 2029Q3E | $5M |
| 2029Q4E | $5M |
| 2030Q1E | $5M |
| 2030Q2E | $5M |
| 2030Q3E | $6M |
| 2030Q4E | $6M |
| 2031Q1E | $6M |
| 2031Q2E | $6M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Deliberately aseasonal. Two post-launch windows give factors of [0.0, 0.0, 1.6, 2.4] and [1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0] - a window-to-window spread as large as the factors themselves, on a base where a $1M rounding step moves a factor by more than 0.10. That is launch noise, not a repeating shape.
- The EC contract is for 'up to' 24 million doses. Turning it into revenue would require inventing a price per dose and a delivery schedule, neither of which Moderna has published, so the line is held on its disclosed run rate.
- No RSV-specific cost of sales is disclosed anywhere, so this vertical carries the same blended product gross margin as the COVID line. If RSV economics differ materially, the mix effect is unmodelled.
- The two derived quarters, 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q4, come from the full-year figure less the filed nine-month figure and are flagged estimated.