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MRNA · Forward model · Other revenue · Bear case

What has to happen in Other revenue

Model as of

This page changes Other revenue inside the complete MRNA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

MRNA forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $1.85 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $49M 43% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $508M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

US COVID vaccination rates keep falling - the CFO's own named largest variable for the second half - and the Federal Circuit appeal goes against Moderna. What this case cannot show is the appeal itself: the engine has no one-off cash charge, so the potential $1.3B additional payment sits outside these cash flows, on top of a balance this model already runs to zero during 2029. What it does NOT assume is that the onshore supply agreements are cancelled; the contracted stand-ready line keeps paying.

Other revenue

Basis quarter$51M
Final quarter$49M
Implied CAGR−1%
Final revenue mix43%

Stand-ready manufacturing income from the UK, Canada and Australia onshore facilities plus collaboration, grant and licensing revenue. It is contractual rather than seasonal and it is the only line growing dependably: stand-ready alone ran 12, 17, 20, 31, 32, 31 ($M) from 2025 Q1 to 2026 Q2 and is now 61% of the vertical.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $43M Reported
2025 Q4 $32M Estimated
2026 Q1 $37M Reported
2026 Q2 $51M Reported
Stand-ready manufacturing revenueCollaboration revenueGrant revenueLicensing and royalty revenue
Sequential growth +2.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% Stand-ready manufacturing is contractual and has risen every quarter since it began in 2025 Q1; collaboration carries the Recordati amortisation.
Other revenue

Latest: $49M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $34M
2023Q2 $51M
2023Q3 $74M
2023Q4 $18M
2024Q1 $0.00
2024Q2 $57M
2024Q3 $42M
2024Q4 $28M
2025Q1 $22M
2025Q2 $28M
2025Q3 $43M
2025Q4 $32M
2026Q1 $37M
2026Q2 $51M
2026Q3E $51M
2026Q4E $51M
2027Q1E $52M
2027Q2E $52M
2027Q3E $52M
2027Q4E $52M
2028Q1E $51M
2028Q2E $51M
2028Q3E $51M
2028Q4E $51M
2029Q1E $51M
2029Q2E $51M
2029Q3E $51M
2029Q4E $50M
2030Q1E $50M
2030Q2E $50M
2030Q3E $50M
2030Q4E $49M
2031Q1E $49M
2031Q2E $49M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Deliberately aseasonal. Three calendar-share windows give [0.77, 1.15, 1.67, 0.41], [0.00, 1.80, 1.32, 0.88] and [0.70, 0.90, 1.38, 1.02]; on the centred moving-average method the window-to-window spread exceeds the signal on all four quarters. The variation is composition, not season.
  • What moved between windows was the mix: a $30M one-off licensing payment landed in 2024 Q2, a $50M Recordati upfront began amortising into collaboration revenue in 2026 Q2, and stand-ready manufacturing revenue did not exist at all before 2025 Q1.
  • The 70% margin is assumed and split-free: stand-ready revenue carries cost of sales while collaboration, grant and royalty income largely does not, and Moderna discloses no cost split across the four streams.
  • Four of the fourteen quarters are derived from annual-minus-nine-month arithmetic and are flagged estimated; the four derived 2025 quarters sum to $125M against a disclosed FY2025 $126M, which is annual-table rounding.
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