MRNA · Forward model · Bull case
The Bull case, 20 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
What is reported: a single operating segment whose revenue is disaggregated into net product sales, split COVID against RSV, and other revenue, split stand-ready manufacturing, collaboration, grant and licensing. The three verticals here are exactly those lines and they reconcile to reported consolidated revenue to the dollar in all fourteen quarters, 2023 Q1 through 2026 Q2. What is derived and flagged estimated: four quarters per line, obtained as the full-year figure less the filed nine-month figure, which carries up to $1M of annual-table rounding. What is assumed: the gross margins, the discount rate, the exit multiple, and every cost figure after 2027. Three things cannot be split honestly and are not attempted - Spikevax against mNEXSPIKE inside the COVID line, cost of sales by product, and any mFLUSIVA revenue, which management's own guidance explicitly assumes to be zero. Two traps in the source data are worth naming. FY2026 cost of sales guidance of about $1.7B includes $0.9B of non-recurring litigation settlement charge, so a gross margin built off the guided figure without stripping the settlement is wrong by more than forty percentage points; the 58% and 70% margins here are built off the underlying manufacturing cost. And 'cash costs' is management's own non-GAAP measure, operating expenses excluding stock-based compensation and depreciation, which is not comparable to the GAAP operating-expense guidance and must never be mixed with it. Finally, EBITDA margin in this model means GROSS margin: R&D and SG&A run at roughly twice total revenue and are carried as fixed-dollar corporate programmes, because a revenue percentage would make the loss grow as sales grow, the exact opposite of the disclosed path to breakeven.
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Latest: $252M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $1.86B |
| 2023Q2 | $344M |
| 2023Q3 | $1.83B |
| 2023Q4 | $2.81B |
| 2024Q1 | $167M |
| 2024Q2 | $241M |
| 2024Q3 | $1.86B |
| 2024Q4 | $966M |
| 2025Q1 | $108M |
| 2025Q2 | $142M |
| 2025Q3 | $1.02B |
| 2025Q4 | $678M |
| 2026Q1 | $389M |
| 2026Q2 | $145M |
| 2026Q3E | $838M |
| 2026Q4E | $714M |
| 2027Q1E | $431M |
| 2027Q2E | $164M |
| 2027Q3E | $923M |
| 2027Q4E | $786M |
| 2028Q1E | $475M |
| 2028Q2E | $184M |
| 2028Q3E | $1.01B |
| 2028Q4E | $858M |
| 2029Q1E | $520M |
| 2029Q2E | $205M |
| 2029Q3E | $1.10B |
| 2029Q4E | $934M |
| 2030Q1E | $568M |
| 2030Q2E | $227M |
| 2030Q3E | $1.19B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.01B |
| 2031Q1E | $619M |
| 2031Q2E | $252M |
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Second quarter 2026 filings
- Jul 31, 2026 we have appealed the District Court's decision related to 28 U.S.C. section 1498 to the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals and could be required to make an additional payment of up to $1.3 billion depending on the outcome of the appeal
- Aug 7, 2026 Our 2026 revenue guidance factors in potential future declines in COVID vaccination rates and continues to assume no revenue from mFLUSIVA and mCOMBRIAX.
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
August 2026 announcements
- Aug 19, 2026 The trial met its primary endpoint of recurrence-free survival (RFS) and a key secondary endpoint of distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS)
- Aug 5, 2026 Moderna Receives U.S. FDA Approval for Influenza Vaccine mFLUSIVA
- Jul 31, 2026 In the EU, the Company signed a joint procurement contract with the European Commission on behalf of six countries for up to 24 million doses of mRESVIA
Bancel 2028 case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bancel 2028 column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Analyst Day and J.P. Morgan
- Nov 20, 2025 Over the next three years, we expect to build a large seasonal vaccine franchise for at-risk populations and invest the cash generated into oncology and rare disease therapeutics
- Jan 12, 2026 Moderna expects to further reduce GAAP operating expenses to $4.2 - $4.6 billion in 2027, on the path to targeted cash breakeven in 2028.
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | −$6.44B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $3.07B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $2.23B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 9.0x |
| Terminal value | $27.66B |
| Discounted at 10.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $17.18B |
| Share of enterprise value from the terminal | 160% |
| Enterprise value | $10.73B |
| Net cash | $6.32B |
| Equity value | $17.05B |
| Shares | 0.40B |
| Fair value per share | $42.71 |
| Against the deployed price of $136.62, as of | −69% |
11% for a loss-making commercial-stage biotech with a clinical pipeline; Moderna discloses no cost of capital. Exit at 6x trailing-year revenue, a commercial vaccine franchise multiple, applied to a franchise an acquirer would not run at Moderna's R&D budget - the explicit period already charges that budget in full. No EBITDA exit multiple is used, because the engine's EBITDA is gross profit before the fixed cost programmes and 12x that number would value a business the cash flows say is loss-making. The gap to the tape is the point: at $138.89 the enterprise is $49.1B, or 23-25x the revenue the 2026 framework implies, and the disclosed verticals cannot reach it. What the market is paying for is intismeran autogene after the 19 August 2026 melanoma readout, which produces no Moderna revenue line at all - Merck leads commercialisation under a roughly equal cost and profit share. This model is published unreliable so the gap is named rather than closed with a bigger multiple.
Read the other way round: at $136.62 the market is paying 28.6x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
Capex outside the verticals
Each vertical's capex is a share of its own revenue, which is the right shape for capacity that scales with sales. These are not that: fixed-size programmes with their own schedule that spend whether or not any segment grows. They are added on top, and they are why free cash flow dips in the years below.
R&D and SG&A, guided H2 2026
2026 Q3 → 2026 Q4Guided FY2026 R&D $2.9B plus SG&A $1.0B less the $1,689M actually spent in H1 2026. Fixed company cost at roughly twice total revenue, so it cannot be a percentage of revenue: that would make losses grow as sales grow.
R&D and SG&A, guided 2027
2027 Q1 → 2027 Q4Guided FY2027 GAAP operating expenses of $4.2-4.6B, midpoint $4.4B, less about $0.85B of cost of sales, which the verticals already carry in their gross margins.
R&D and SG&A, 2028 extrapolated
2028 Q1 → 2028 Q4Nothing beyond 2027 is guided. This extends the disclosed 2026-to-2027 reduction of about 9% one further year, which is the direction management states on the way to the 2028 cash-breakeven target.
R&D and SG&A, 2029 extrapolated
2029 Q1 → 2029 Q4The same 9% annual reduction carried one year further. It is an extrapolation of a disclosed cadence, not a disclosed figure, and it is the single largest assumption in this model.
R&D and SG&A, 2030 extrapolated
2030 Q1 → 2030 Q4The same 9% annual reduction again. By this point the cost base is about 25% below the guided 2027 level and still roughly $1.3B a year above the $1.33B of gross profit the disclosed verticals produce that year.
R&D and SG&A, 2031 H1 extrapolated
2031 Q1 → 2031 Q2Two quarters at the continued glide, to close the horizon on the same basis rather than dropping the cost base to zero in the terminal year.
Manufacturing network capex, H2 2026
2026 Q3 → 2026 Q4Guided FY2026 capital expenditure of $0.2-0.3B, midpoint $250M, less the $99M spent in H1 2026. It belongs to the global production network - Norwood, Laval, Harwell, Clayton, Marlborough - not to any one vertical.
Manufacturing network capex, 2027 onward
2027 Q1 → 2031 Q2Held at $200M a year, the low end of the only capex range Moderna has guided, as a maintenance run rate for a network that is already built. No capex beyond 2026 is disclosed.
The projected path
| Quarter | COVID vaccines | RSV vaccine (mRESVIA) | Other revenue | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $781M | $3M | $53M | $838M | −18% | $542M | $1.18B | −$639M | −94 | −$624M |
| 2026 Q4E | $655M | $3M | $56M | $714M | +5% | $469M | $1.18B | −$712M | −94 | −$678M |
| 2027 Q1E | $369M | $3M | $58M | $431M | +11% | $289M | $938M | −$648M | −140 | −$604M |
| 2027 Q2E | $100M | $4M | $60M | $164M | +13% | $115M | $938M | −$822M | −488 | −$748M |
| 2027 Q3E | $856M | $4M | $63M | $923M | +10% | $626M | $938M | −$312M | −24 | −$277M |
| 2027 Q4E | $716M | $4M | $65M | $786M | +10% | $538M | $938M | −$400M | −41 | −$346M |
| 2028 Q1E | $403M | $4M | $68M | $475M | +10% | $330M | $858M | −$527M | −101 | −$446M |
| 2028 Q2E | $109M | $4M | $71M | $184M | +12% | $133M | $858M | −$725M | −383 | −$599M |
| 2028 Q3E | $931M | $4M | $73M | $1.01B | +9% | $704M | $858M | −$154M | −6 | −$124M |
| 2028 Q4E | $778M | $4M | $76M | $858M | +9% | $603M | $858M | −$254M | −20 | −$200M |
| 2029 Q1E | $437M | $5M | $79M | $520M | +10% | $370M | $785M | −$415M | −70 | −$319M |
| 2029 Q2E | $118M | $5M | $82M | $205M | +11% | $150M | $785M | −$635M | −299 | −$477M |
| 2029 Q3E | $1.01B | $5M | $85M | $1.10B | +9% | $780M | $785M | −$5M | +8 | −$4M |
| 2029 Q4E | $841M | $5M | $88M | $934M | +9% | $667M | $785M | −$118M | −4 | −$84M |
| 2030 Q1E | $472M | $5M | $91M | $568M | +9% | $410M | $719M | −$308M | −45 | −$216M |
| 2030 Q2E | $127M | $5M | $94M | $227M | +11% | $169M | $719M | −$550M | −231 | −$375M |
| 2030 Q3E | $1.09B | $6M | $98M | $1.19B | +8% | $856M | $719M | $138M | +20 | $92M |
| 2030 Q4E | $906M | $6M | $101M | $1.01B | +8% | $732M | $719M | $13M | +10 | $9M |
| 2031 Q1E | $508M | $6M | $105M | $619M | +9% | $452M | $658M | −$207M | −24 | −$132M |
| 2031 Q2E | $137M | $6M | $109M | $252M | +11% | $189M | $658M | −$469M | −175 | −$291M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | $12.88 | First publication, off the 2026 Q2 basis quarter. Three verticals traced to filed 10-Qs and 10-Ks for fourteen consecutive quarters, COVID carrying 2026-derived seasonality and the other two deliberately aseasonal. R&D, SG&A and capex sit in eight corporate programmes rather than a revenue percentage, because Moderna's cost base is fixed at roughly twice its revenue. Published unreliable: the disclosed verticals produce a base fair value of $12.88 against $138.89 on the tape, and the gap is the oncology pipeline, which produces no Moderna revenue line. |