MRNA · Forward model · COVID vaccines · Bull case
What has to happen in COVID vaccines
Model as of
This page changes COVID vaccines inside the complete MRNA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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COVID vaccines
Basis quarter$91M
Final quarter$137M
Implied CAGR+9%
Final revenue mix54%
Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE are the cash engine and the whole of the seasonal shape: 63% of H1 2026 revenue, and Q3 plus Q4 were 89% of COVID sales in both 2024 and 2025. What moved the line in 2026 is not price or vaccination rates but the annualised delivery of multi-year onshore-manufacturing supply agreements with the UK, Canada and Australia, plus $255M of European volume that ships outside the retail respiratory season.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$971M
Reported
2025 Q4
$642M
Estimated
2026 Q1
$345M
Reported
2026 Q2
$91M
Reported
Spikevax (mRNA-1273)mNEXSPIKE (mRNA-1283)
Sequential growth
0.0%/qtr
decaying toward −0.8%
Flat deseasonalised trend reproduces the guided H2: Q3 at 55.0% of second-half COVID sales, FY2026 COVID $1.82B.
COVID vaccines
Latest: $137M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $1.83B |
| 2023Q2 | $293M |
| 2023Q3 | $1.76B |
| 2023Q4 | $2.79B |
| 2024Q1 | $167M |
| 2024Q2 | $184M |
| 2024Q3 | $1.81B |
| 2024Q4 | $923M |
| 2025Q1 | $84M |
| 2025Q2 | $114M |
| 2025Q3 | $971M |
| 2025Q4 | $642M |
| 2026Q1 | $345M |
| 2026Q2 | $91M |
| 2026Q3E | $781M |
| 2026Q4E | $655M |
| 2027Q1E | $369M |
| 2027Q2E | $100M |
| 2027Q3E | $856M |
| 2027Q4E | $716M |
| 2028Q1E | $403M |
| 2028Q2E | $109M |
| 2028Q3E | $931M |
| 2028Q4E | $778M |
| 2029Q1E | $437M |
| 2029Q2E | $118M |
| 2029Q3E | $1.01B |
| 2029Q4E | $841M |
| 2030Q1E | $472M |
| 2030Q2E | $127M |
| 2030Q3E | $1.09B |
| 2030Q4E | $906M |
| 2031Q1E | $508M |
| 2031Q2E | $137M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Seasonality is indexed to calendar quarters: Moderna's fiscal year is the calendar year, so index 0 is January-March. The factors are derived from the 2026 window itself - H1 2026 actuals of $345M and $91M plus the guided 55/45 second-half split - not from the realised 2024-25 windows, which sit near [0.20, 0.25, 2.25, 1.31].
- The 2024-25 factors were rejected on a test, not on taste: they deseasonalise the $91M basis quarter to a $371M run rate, i.e. FY COVID of about $1.48B, an 18% decline against a company guiding up to 10% growth. The 2026 factors deseasonalise it to $455M, about $1.82B a year, inside the range the framework implies.
- With seasonality on, growthQoQ is a deseasonalised trend rate and not the sequential print. A flat trend reproduces the guidance: the first two projected quarters are $762M and $623M of COVID revenue, so Q3 is 55.0% of second-half COVID sales against the guided approximately 55%.
- Moderna discloses no dose volume and no price per dose for any product in any filing, so no unit or capacity driver can be evidenced and the driver has to be growth.
- EBITDA margin here means GROSS margin. R&D and SG&A are fixed-dollar company costs carried as corporate programmes, because at roughly twice total revenue they do not scale with sales.
- Gross margin is itself seasonal - 79% in 2025 Q3 against 26% in 2026 Q2, because unutilised manufacturing capacity cost is fixed - and the engine's margin is not. The 58% here is the full-year weighted margin, so annual totals are close to right and individual quarters are not.
- Four of the fourteen quarters are derived by annual-minus-nine-month arithmetic and are flagged estimated; they carry up to $1M of annual-table rounding.