MRNA · Forward model · Other revenue
What has to happen in Other revenue
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Other revenue
Basis quarter$51M
Final quarter$66M
Implied CAGR+5%
Final revenue mix43%
Stand-ready manufacturing income from the UK, Canada and Australia onshore facilities plus collaboration, grant and licensing revenue. It is contractual rather than seasonal and it is the only line growing dependably: stand-ready alone ran 12, 17, 20, 31, 32, 31 ($M) from 2025 Q1 to 2026 Q2 and is now 61% of the vertical.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$43M
Reported
2025 Q4
$32M
Estimated
2026 Q1
$37M
Reported
2026 Q2
$51M
Reported
Stand-ready manufacturing revenueCollaboration revenueGrant revenueLicensing and royalty revenue
Sequential growth
+2.0%/qtr
decaying toward +1.0%
Stand-ready manufacturing is contractual and has risen every quarter since it began in 2025 Q1; collaboration carries the Recordati amortisation.
Other revenue
Latest: $66M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $34M |
| 2023Q2 | $51M |
| 2023Q3 | $74M |
| 2023Q4 | $18M |
| 2024Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q2 | $57M |
| 2024Q3 | $42M |
| 2024Q4 | $28M |
| 2025Q1 | $22M |
| 2025Q2 | $28M |
| 2025Q3 | $43M |
| 2025Q4 | $32M |
| 2026Q1 | $37M |
| 2026Q2 | $51M |
| 2026Q3E | $52M |
| 2026Q4E | $53M |
| 2027Q1E | $54M |
| 2027Q2E | $55M |
| 2027Q3E | $56M |
| 2027Q4E | $56M |
| 2028Q1E | $57M |
| 2028Q2E | $58M |
| 2028Q3E | $59M |
| 2028Q4E | $59M |
| 2029Q1E | $60M |
| 2029Q2E | $61M |
| 2029Q3E | $61M |
| 2029Q4E | $62M |
| 2030Q1E | $63M |
| 2030Q2E | $64M |
| 2030Q3E | $64M |
| 2030Q4E | $65M |
| 2031Q1E | $66M |
| 2031Q2E | $66M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Deliberately aseasonal. Three calendar-share windows give [0.77, 1.15, 1.67, 0.41], [0.00, 1.80, 1.32, 0.88] and [0.70, 0.90, 1.38, 1.02]; on the centred moving-average method the window-to-window spread exceeds the signal on all four quarters. The variation is composition, not season.
- What moved between windows was the mix: a $30M one-off licensing payment landed in 2024 Q2, a $50M Recordati upfront began amortising into collaboration revenue in 2026 Q2, and stand-ready manufacturing revenue did not exist at all before 2025 Q1.
- The 70% margin is assumed and split-free: stand-ready revenue carries cost of sales while collaboration, grant and royalty income largely does not, and Moderna discloses no cost split across the four streams.
- Four of the fourteen quarters are derived from annual-minus-nine-month arithmetic and are flagged estimated; the four derived 2025 quarters sum to $125M against a disclosed FY2025 $126M, which is annual-table rounding.