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What has to happen in Bottling Investments

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KO forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $86.83 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $403M 3% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $446M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Henrique Braun's first full quarter as chief executive delivered 5% global unit case volume growth led by India, China, the United States and Brazil, with the FIFA World Cup activation contributing to 5% Trademark Coca-Cola volume growth and 8% Powerade volume growth. The case is that the marketing machine converts events into cases, and that concentrate-led growth - four points of concentrate against two of price and mix - is more durable than the pricing-led growth of the prior two years. The lift is put where the volume actually is, on Asia Pacific and Latin America, rather than spread evenly. What this case does not reach: the World Cup does not repeat in the second half, the company itself says concentrate shipments will lag volume by a further point in the third quarter, and none of it touches the day-count or African bottling arithmetic that shapes the fourth.

Bottling Investments

Basis quarter$1.52B
Final quarter$403M
Implied CAGR−23%
Final revenue mix3%

The consolidated bottling operations Coca-Cola still owns outright, principally Coca-Cola Beverages Africa, which is under a definitive agreement to be sold to Coca-Cola HBC with closing expected by the end of 2026. $1,525M of third-party revenue at an 11.6% EBITDA margin and 6.0% capital intensity: the finished-product economics the rest of the company has spent a decade refranchising away. This line shrinks structurally, not cyclically.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.34B Reported
2025 Q4 $1.51B Estimated
2026 Q1 $1.64B Reported
2026 Q2 $1.52B Reported
Coca-Cola Beverages Africa, classified as held for saleOther consolidated bottling operations
Sequential growth −0.1%/qtr decaying toward 0.0% -0.10% is the 2024 Q2 to 2026 Q2 compound quarterly rate: this book has been flat to shrinking for two years.
Bottling Investments

Latest: $403M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $1.81B
2024Q2 $1.54B
2024Q3 $1.31B
2024Q4 $1.55B
2025Q1 $1.46B
2025Q2 $1.41B
2025Q3 $1.34B
2025Q4 $1.51B
2026Q1 $1.64B
2026Q2 $1.52B
2026Q3E $1.53B
2026Q4E $397M
2027Q1E $397M
2027Q2E $397M
2027Q3E $397M
2027Q4E $397M
2028Q1E $398M
2028Q2E $398M
2028Q3E $398M
2028Q4E $399M
2029Q1E $399M
2029Q2E $399M
2029Q3E $400M
2029Q4E $400M
2030Q1E $401M
2030Q2E $401M
2030Q3E $401M
2030Q4E $402M
2031Q1E $402M
2031Q2E $403M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The one-off step of -74% dated to the second projected quarter is the African bottling deconsolidation. It removes $1,127M of quarterly revenue, which is the average of the two independent bounds the research derived: $1,199M from the shrinking full-year acquisitions-and-divestitures guidance, and about $1,060M from the second-half consensus arithmetic. Coca-Cola does not disclose Coca-Cola Beverages Africa's standalone revenue, so this figure is assumed inside a $1.0-1.4bn range and nothing more.
  • The step lands after one quarter rather than at the basis quarter because the company's own third-quarter considerations carry only about one point of acquisitions-and-divestitures headwind. The exit is a fourth-quarter event on what has been filed, and dating it is what keeps 2026 Q3 from being written down a quarter early.
  • Left aseasonal deliberately. The fitted amplitude of 0.239 sits against a worst-case window spread of 0.129 and the Q1 and Q3 factors move in opposite directions between the two windows: that variation is refranchising in Nigeria, India and Ghana and the Africa held-for-sale reclassification, not season.
  • The bear and bull cases move this step to the two ends of the derived range rather than moving a growth rate, because a deconsolidation is a level event on a date and not a rate.
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