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What has to happen in Latin America

Model as of

This page changes Latin America inside the complete KO model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

KO forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $59.38 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $2.11B 16% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $20.29B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The second half gives back what the calendar gave. Coca-Cola's own guidance implies a comparable revenue bridge of roughly +5 organic, +1 currency and -2 to -3 from acquisitions and divestitures; consensus turns that into FY2026 revenue of $49.72bn, which against first-half actuals of $25,852M leaves $23,868M for the second half - a 1.7% decline after a first half that grew 9.2%. Two disclosed mechanisms do it: six fewer days in 2026 Q4 than in 2025 Q4, and the African bottling deconsolidation. FY2027 consensus revenue of $49.82bn is 0.2% above FY2026, so the sell side does not expect the lost revenue back. This case takes the top of the derived $1.0-1.4bn African bottling range, trims the compounding growth of every line and marks the exit multiple down to 17x.

Latin America

Basis quarter$1.84B
Final quarter$2.11B
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix16%

Mexico, Brazil and the rest of Latin America, almost entirely concentrate: $1,839M of third-party revenue with no intersegment revenue and no segment capital expenditure at all in the basis quarter. The highest-margin vertical in the company at a 64.5% EBITDA margin. Reported revenue grew 16% in 2026 Q2 on concentrate sales +1 and price/mix +3, with an 11-point currency tailwind doing the rest.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.57B Reported
2025 Q4 $1.70B Estimated
2026 Q1 $1.68B Reported
2026 Q2 $1.84B Reported
Concentrate sales to bottling partners in Mexico, Brazil and the rest of Latin America
Sequential growth +1.3%/qtr decaying toward +0.9% 1.35% is the 2024 Q2 to 2026 Q2 compound quarterly rate; the trailing four-quarter rate of 3.75% is currency, not trend.
Latin America

Latest: $2.11B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $1.53B
2024Q2 $1.65B
2024Q3 $1.64B
2024Q4 $1.65B
2025Q1 $1.48B
2025Q2 $1.59B
2025Q3 $1.57B
2025Q4 $1.70B
2026Q1 $1.68B
2026Q2 $1.84B
2026Q3E $1.86B
2026Q4E $1.87B
2027Q1E $1.89B
2027Q2E $1.91B
2027Q3E $1.92B
2027Q4E $1.94B
2028Q1E $1.95B
2028Q2E $1.96B
2028Q3E $1.98B
2028Q4E $1.99B
2029Q1E $2.00B
2029Q2E $2.01B
2029Q3E $2.03B
2029Q4E $2.04B
2030Q1E $2.05B
2030Q2E $2.06B
2030Q3E $2.07B
2030Q4E $2.09B
2031Q1E $2.10B
2031Q2E $2.11B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Left aseasonal on the evidence, not for want of trying: the fitted amplitude is 0.041 against a worst-case window-to-window spread of 0.038, so the spread is the signal. A four-factor vector here would encode noise.
  • This is the most currency-exposed line in the model. Of the 16% reported growth in the basis quarter, 11 points were currency and 5 were organic, which is why the terminal rate is set at 0.9% a quarter rather than anywhere near the trailing reported pace.
  • The terminal EBITDA margin is trimmed 1.5 points below the 64.5% basis quarter for the same reason: that margin was struck on revenue an 11-point currency tailwind had already inflated.
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